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Which US states have the largest undocumented immigrant populations?
Executive Summary
Most analyses identify California and Texas as the two U.S. states with the largest undocumented immigrant populations, followed variably by New York, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois depending on the dataset and year. Differences among estimates reflect evolving total counts (ranging from roughly 11 million to 14 million in the cited work), distinct years of measurement, and divergent estimation methods that shift state rankings at the margins [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. Big Two Dominance: California and Texas Still Lead the Field
All supplied analyses concur that California and Texas hold the largest undocumented populations, with state-level counts repeatedly appearing at the very top of lists. The Migration Policy Institute profile reports California ~2.74 million and Texas ~1.74 million in its compilation [1]. A more recent map based on Department of Homeland Security data cited in Newsweek reports slightly different totals — California ~2.6 million and Texas ~2.1 million — but the rank order remains the same [3]. This consistent top ranking across time and sources reflects both the large immigrant-serving economies of those states and historical migration patterns. Differences in the specific counts stem from methodological choices and reference years, not from disagreement about which states host the most undocumented residents [1] [3].
2. The Middle Pack: New York, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois — Who Falls Where?
Beyond the top two, sources diverge on the exact ordering among New York, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois, though these states repeatedly appear among the leaders. MPI’s profile lists New York (~835,000), Florida (~772,000), and New Jersey (~440,000) in its top five, with the five states together representing a majority of a roughly 11 million total [1]. Other recent reporting and studies show Florida, New York, and New Jersey as fast-growing contributors to overall totals from 2020–2023, and some analyses place Illinois in the top six instead of New Jersey [4] [5]. The shifting positions reflect regional growth trends, internal migration, and the time windows used by researchers; none of the supplied sources challenge that these states make up the core group after California and Texas [1] [4] [5].
3. How Big Is “Big”? Total Counts Vary — 11M, 12.2M, 14M Appear
The apparent disagreement among sources is less about which states rank highest and more about the national total of undocumented immigrants, which shifts across the datasets. MPI’s profile situates its state counts within an ~11 million national estimate [1]. The Center for Migration Studies reported a 12.2 million estimate for 2023 in the materials cited [4]. Pew Research’s more recent work referenced here asserts a record 14 million in 2023, noting growth from illegal entry and visa overstays and highlighting changing profiles of people with some protections [2]. These divergent totals change the scale of state counts; a higher national estimate raises the expected counts in top states but does not fundamentally alter which states host the most undocumented residents [1] [2] [4].
4. Method Matters: Residuals, DHS Data, and Reporting Choices Drive Differences
The supplied analyses underscore that estimation methodology—the residual method, micro-data adjustments, or direct administrative tallies from DHS—produces materially different results. Pew’s materials discuss the residual and micro-data methods, explaining inherent uncertainties in state-level estimates [6]. Newsweek’s map relies on DHS-derived figures which can diverge from academic residual estimates due to different coverage, timing, and definitional choices [3]. MPI’s and CMS’s products are built on systematic demographic syntheses that treat undercount, survey coverage, and migration flows differently [1] [4]. These technical choices matter: they explain why absolute counts and small changes in rank vary while broader patterns (California and Texas leading) persist.
5. Timeline and Trends: Growth, Redistribution, and Policy Signals
The pieces provided point to recent growth and geographic shifts: Pew and CMS sources emphasize growth through 2023, with some states showing faster increases [2] [4]. Newsweek’s early-2025 depiction reiterates a concentrated distribution in a handful of states but reflects updated DHS inputs [3]. MPI’s earlier profile, with a publication timestamp indicating 2015 but covering later snapshots, captures a prior baseline where the same states dominated [1]. Taken together, these sources document both persistence (same states repeatedly ranking highest) and change (rising totals and faster growth in states like Florida and New Jersey in the 2020–2023 window)—a pattern consistent with broader migration and policy dynamics [1] [2] [4].
6. Reading the Numbers: What Policymakers and the Public Should Keep in Mind
When using these figures for policy or debate, the key takeaways from the compiled sources are clear: California and Texas are the largest hosts of undocumented immigrants, while New York, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois commonly populate the next tier; national totals vary between roughly 11 and 14 million depending on the source and year [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. Users should treat precise state counts as estimates sensitive to data vintage and method, and note that different outlets may have institutional priorities—academic aggregation, DHS administrative counts, or journalistic presentation—that shape how numbers are framed. For comparative work, match the source, year, and method before drawing policy conclusions [6] [3].