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Fact check: Which US states have the highest numbers of undocumented immigrants in 2025?
Executive summary
Recent 2025 estimates consistently place California, Texas, and Florida at the top for numbers of undocumented immigrants, with a commonly cited ranking listing California first (about 2.6 million), followed by Texas and Florida, then New Jersey, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, and Arizona (January 2025 compilations). These state-level rankings come from immigration research summaries and aggregation efforts that rely on different methodologies and baseline national totals (estimates around 11 million undocumented people). More recent reporting through October 2025 highlights rapid shifts in arrivals and large DHS removal/self-deportation claims that can materially affect state counts [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the main sources claim — a compact extraction of assertions that matter
Multiple 2025 sources assert overlapping but not identical lists of top states. One compilation lists the top ten states as California (2.6 million), Texas, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, and Arizona, citing a January 6, 2025 synthesis [1]. A separate January 24, 2025 research summary emphasizes that California has the highest immigrant share (27% of population) and cites national undocumented totals around 11 million, while noting variation across estimates from major research centers [2]. An October 1, 2025 AP report highlights Florida’s sharp arrival surge through early 2025, signaling recent geographic shifts in where undocumented migrants are settling [3]. A recent DHS claim reports over 2 million removals or self-deportations within a short window, which would reduce undocumented counts if sustained; that claim is presented without a full independent reconciliation to state totals [4].
2. Why estimates differ — methodology, timing, and definitions drive divergent numbers
Researchers and agencies use different methodologies — survey-based extrapolation, administrative records, and modelled residual methods — producing materially different state counts. Some sources rely on national undocumented totals (commonly cited near 11 million) and allocate by state share, while others use border and interior encounter trends to update state-level flows [2] [1]. Timing is crucial: January 2025 compilations predate a large wave of arrivals and subsequent DHS actions through 2025, so static snapshots from early-year research can differ from October 2025 reporting about arrivals or removals [1] [3] [4]. Definitions of “undocumented” also vary — unauthorized migrants present at a point in time versus recent arrivals — which changes state rankings and counts.
3. The strong case for California, Texas, Florida — and why that may shift
Multiple datasets and expert compilations place California first, with about 2.6 million undocumented residents in early 2025, followed by Texas and Florida as large pools due to historical migration patterns and recent arrival concentrations [1] [2]. California’s large immigrant base (27% immigrant share) amplifies its absolute count even if inflow slows [2]. Florida’s prominence in 2024–2025 arrivals is notable: reporting through October 2025 shows higher per-capita migrant arrivals into Florida than most other states, which can rapidly alter the state’s undocumented total if arrivals remain and integration occurs [3]. These dynamics mean rankings are contingent on recent flows and enforcement outcomes.
4. The DHS removals/self‑deportation claim and its practical implications
A DHS claim states over 2 million people were removed or self-deported in under 250 days, with an estimate of 1.6 million self-deportations and more than 400,000 formal deportations; if validated and sustained, such reductions would materially lower national and state undocumented counts [4]. Independent verification, however, requires reconciled administrative data showing where those people were removed from, and whether they were counted in prior state totals. The DHS figure is an administrative claim that could reflect multiple events per person, geographic concentration in border states, and rapid policy-driven movement; thus its impact on state rankings depends on granular, dated reconciliation that is not yet publicly detailed.
5. What’s missing from these public accounts — gaps to watch
Public compilations often omit granular timing, state-by-state reconciliations, and consistent definitions that would let analysts directly compare early-2025 estimates with later arrival or removal reports. None of the cited syntheses provide a fully traceable pipeline from national totals to updated post‑arrival-and‑removal state counts; this leaves uncertainty about whether changes reflect real population shifts, administrative churn, or measurement artefacts [1] [2] [4]. Independent academic centers (e.g., Pew, Migration Policy Institute, Center for Migration Studies) typically publish more methodological detail; cross-checking those releases against DHS operational data is necessary to resolve discrepancies.
6. Bottom line for readers seeking definitive state rankings in 2025
As of early 2025, the preponderance of evidence places California, Texas, and Florida at the top for undocumented populations, with California commonly cited at about 2.6 million; other large states include New Jersey, Illinois, New York, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington, and Arizona [1] [2]. However, arrival surges in 2024–2025 and DHS-reported removals introduce substantial volatility: state rankings can change if arrivals concentrate in specific states or if removals are sustained and verified [3] [4]. For definitive, up-to-date state totals, consult methodologically transparent estimates from major migration research centers and recent DHS state-level reconciliations as they are published.