How did voter turnout in 2024 vary by race and ethnicity compared to 2020?
Executive summary
Voter turnout in 2024 was slightly lower overall than in 2020—about 64–65% of the voting‑eligible or voting‑age population cast ballots in 2024 versus roughly 66% in 2020—while turnout declines were uneven across racial and ethnic groups, with declines larger for Hispanic and Black voters in some datasets and smaller declines for white voters (for example, Hispanic turnout fell 3.1 percentage points and white non‑Hispanic turnout declined least) [1] [2]. Multiple analyses (Census, Pew, Election Lab, independent research groups) say turnout remained high historically but that the racial gaps in participation widened in 2024 relative to 2020 [3] [4] [5].
1. Turnout moved down slightly overall but remained historically high
National summaries place 2024 turnout a point or two below 2020. The University of Florida Election Lab and other outlets estimated about 64% of the voting‑eligible population voted in 2024 compared with about 66% in 2020 [1] [6]. The U.S. Census reports 65.3% of the voting‑age population voted in its CPS supplement, and registration was 73.6% [3] [7]. Analysts emphasize that 2024 is still one of the highest turnout years in modern U.S. history [6] [4].
2. Directional pattern by race: declines were concentrated among Black and Hispanic voters
Multiple organizations report turnout declines across racial and ethnic groups, but declines were larger for some nonwhite groups. USAFacts notes turnout declined across all racial and ethnic groups in 2024 versus 2020, with Hispanic voters showing the largest numeric drop (Hispanic turnout 50.6% in 2024, down 3.1 points) and white, non‑Hispanic citizens experiencing the smallest decline [2]. The Brennan Center’s state‑level analysis of Alabama highlights how the white–Black turnout gap widened there (white–Black gap rose to 13 points, with Black turnout falling 6 points in Alabama versus a 1‑point drop for white voters) and warns of similar widening gaps elsewhere [5].
3. Pew’s validated‑voter work: turnout shifts helped change electoral arithmetic
Pew Research Center’s validated‑voter analyses find that turnout changes—more than mass switching between candidates—shaped 2024 outcomes. Pew reports a smaller national turnout decline from 2020 to 2024 (66% to 64%) but stresses that turnout remained higher among white, older, more affluent and more educated voters, patterns that persisted and shaped the electorate’s composition [4] [8]. Pew’s follow‑up analysis points to Republican gains across multiple racial groups in vote shares and attributes much of that to differential turnout patterns [9] [8].
4. Youth turnout and racial differences amplified the gaps
Young people’s turnout fell sharply from 2020. CIRCLE (Tufts) estimates national youth turnout around 42–47% in 2024 (depending on the measure) versus historically high rates in 2020; their youth breakdown shows large racial gaps—white youth 55%, Asian youth 43%, Black youth 34%, Latino youth 32% in CIRCLE’s youth vote reporting [9] [10] [11]. CIRCLE argues that unequal access, outreach and socioeconomic barriers help explain why declines were concentrated among younger nonwhite cohorts [11].
5. Geographic and state variation matters — racial gaps can be larger locally
National averages mask big state and local variation. Ballotpedia and the Election Lab show turnout changes differed by state and even by census tract; some battleground states kept or exceeded 2020 turnout while declines concentrated in non‑competitive states and certain communities [6] [12]. The Brennan Center’s Alabama case study shows how restrictive laws and other local factors can produce especially large racial turnout gaps [5].
6. Competing interpretations and data limits
Scholars and groups agree turnout fell modestly overall and racial gaps widened, but they differ on magnitude and causes. Pew’s validated‑voter approach emphasizes turnout validation against voter files and attributes 2024 outcomes mainly to turnout differences [4] [8]. Other groups focus on youth disengagement, local voting rules, or campaign outreach as drivers [11] [9] [5]. Limitations: CPS self‑reporting, exit polls, and survey panels each have biases; validated voter files correct some errors but rely on commercial aggregators, and state certifications lag, so precise national subgroup percentages vary by source [3] [4] [12].
7. What the coverage does not settle
Available sources do not mention a single, universally accepted numeric breakdown by race that reconciles every dataset; estimates differ by methodology (CPS self‑report, validated voter files, state totals, and exit polls) and by whether researchers measure voting‑eligible population or voting‑age population [3] [4] [12]. Analysts caution against using one dataset alone to claim exact point changes for every racial group [4].
Bottom line
All major datasets agree: turnout in 2024 was slightly below 2020 but still unusually high historically, and declines were not uniform—Black and Hispanic turnout fell more in many analyses while white turnout declined least, widening racial participation gaps that had important electoral consequences [1] [2] [4] [5]. Policymakers and advocates point to localized law changes, outreach, and socioeconomic barriers as likely contributors, but methodological differences among Census, Pew, CIRCLE and state data mean precise point estimates vary by source [3] [4] [11] [12].