Fact check: The liberal west is in terminal decline, and we are seeing a return to the age of empires and repression

1. Summary of the results

The evidence suggests a significant transformation in global political and economic systems, rather than a simple "terminal decline." While there are clear indicators of democratic regression, with less than 5% of the world's population projected to live in full democracies by 2026 ^[1], the situation is more nuanced. Currently, 45.4% of the world's population still lives in some form of democracy, though only 7.8% experience "full democracy" ^[2].

The shift appears to be both political and economic in nature:

• There has been a documented right-wing authoritarian shift in global politics, notably in the USA and Germany ^[3]
• China's economy has grown 14.2 times between 1990-2022, challenging Western economic dominance ^[4]
• Western democratic institutions are experiencing fragmentation, exemplified by rising right-wing movements in Europe ^[5]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement overlooks several crucial factors:

• Complex Global Democracy Landscape: Rather than total collapse, democracy actually saw a small numerical increase in 2023, with two new democracies emerging ^[2]
• Transformation vs. Decline: Some experts suggest we're witnessing a transformation into a more inclusive, complex governance model rather than simple decline ^[6]
• Historical Context: The Western decline has roots dating back to the 1960s, driven by economic competition from Germany, Japan, and rising Asian economies ^[3]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The statement's use of "terminal decline" and "return to empires" contains several problematic assumptions:

• It presents a false binary between liberal democracy and authoritarian repression, ignoring that 45.4% of the world's population lives in various forms of democracy ^[2]
• The phrase "terminal decline" suggests an irreversible process, while evidence shows a more complex picture with both regression and progress in different regions ^[2]

Who benefits from this narrative?

• Authoritarian regimes benefit from promoting the narrative of democracy's inevitable collapse
• Traditional Western powers might use this narrative to justify more aggressive foreign policy stances
• Rising powers like China benefit from narratives about Western decline to legitimize their own political systems and global influence ^[4]

The reality appears to be more nuanced: while the Western-led international order is indeed transforming, it's evolving into a more complex system rather than simply collapsing into authoritarian rule ^[6].