What’s happening in Iran?
Executive summary
Iran is in the midst of a nationwide wave of protests that began on December 28, 2025, initially sparked by economic collapse and currency collapse but which have rapidly broadened into political challenges to the clerical regime, with demonstrators in dozens of cities and provinces and the government responding with internet blackouts and escalating force [1] [2] [3]. Independent monitors, human rights groups, and some media report dozens to hundreds killed and mass arrests amid a near-countrywide communications shutdown, while the regime has moved to label protesters “rioters” and “terrorists,” signaling a harsher, militarized response [1] [4] [5].
1. How the unrest started and who’s in the streets
What began as protests over an economic collapse — including a sudden currency failure and soaring inflation — has swelled into mass demonstrations in provincial towns and major cities across Iran, with reports of protests in all 31 provinces and hundreds of locations since late December 2025 [2] [6]. Protest composition ranges from labor and bazaar strikes to youth-led street marches and community protests in Kurdish and Baloch regions; Kurdish parties and Baloch organizations have called strikes and in some places coordinated actions, expanding the geographic scope and political character of the unrest [7] [2].
2. The state’s response: information blackout and force
The Iranian authorities imposed a nationwide internet and mobile blackout on the evening of January 8, 2026, a step UN and rights bodies said severely impeded information flow and likely concealed the full extent of state violence and arrests [1]. Concurrently, senior officials and security organs have reframed the unrest as a security crisis — moving from criminal labels to “terrorist” rhetoric — while deploying conventional military and security forces and reporting casualties among security personnel, indicating the regime is treating the phenomenon as a military threat rather than only law-and-order protests [4] [8].
3. Casualties, arrests and contested tallies
Human rights organizations and outlets have documented killings, forced confessions and numerous arrests amid reports of security forces using live ammunition and shotguns loaded with pellets, though exact casualty totals vary and are difficult to verify because of the communications shutdown [3] [5] [9]. Some sources compile higher rapid tallies — including casualty figures reported online and in exile networks — while established outlets caution they cannot independently confirm the largest headline numbers, underscoring how the blackout and restricted access create competing, sometimes unverified estimates [9] [6].
4. Political messaging and elite fractures
Iran’s supreme leader and state media accuse foreign actors (notably the US) of instigating unrest and denounce “vandals” and “saboteurs,” while at least some senior clerics and officials acknowledge economic mismanagement as a genuine grievance, revealing a split in official framing between appeasement of “legitimate” economic protests and hardline suppression of those branded violent or foreign-backed [3] [2]. Exiled opposition figures such as Reza Pahlavi have urged more assertive action from protesters and symbolic shifts like flying the pre-1979 flag, complicating the narrative and offering a focal point for anti-regime sentiment [5].
5. Regional and security implications
Wider instability has geopoliticized responses: Iran has reportedly sought help from affiliated militias in Iraq to help suppress unrest, and Tehran has issued threats against potential external interference, raising risks of spillover into the region and complicating calculations for neighbours and Western states watching for both humanitarian concerns and strategic consequences [8]. Separately, pressures from sanctions, declining oil revenue and international events — highlighted by analysts in policy briefings — mean the economic root causes and foreign policy constraints will shape any medium-term outcome [10].
6. What is uncertain and what to watch next
Reliable tallies of deaths and arrests remain contested due to the blackout and jamming of satellite services like Starlink, leaving major uncertainties about scale and trajectory; independent monitors call for restored communications and transparent investigations into allegations of excessive force [8] [1]. Key indicators to watch are whether protests maintain city-wide scale as networks recover, whether security forces sustain a military posture or revert to negotiated local de-escalation, and whether political fractures among elites widen into defections or alternative governance claims [4] [2].