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What do political scientists say about MAGA and authoritarian tendencies?
Executive summary
Political scientists offer competing but converging views: many studies find a meaningful link between right‑wing authoritarianism (RWA) and support for the MAGA agenda—correlations often described as moderate to strong—while some research stresses identity, racial status threat, Christian nationalism, and partisan orientation as equal or stronger drivers [1] [2]. Other scholars and commentators describe Trump-style politics as “authoritarian populism” or warn MAGA’s rhetoric and tactics test democratic guardrails, yet debate remains over whether MAGA is a sui generis authoritarian movement or the product of older cultural and material dynamics [3] [2].
1. Authoritarianism correlates with MAGA support—but it’s not the whole story
Multiple academic analyses report that measures of RWA help explain substantial portions of MAGA support: one summary notes correlations between RWA scores and MAGA agenda items ranging roughly 0.41–0.54, which social‑science conventions label “moderate to strong” [1]. Yet a chapter in an Oxford volume finds that when scholars add identity‑based explanations (racism, status threat, Christian nationalism) and controls for partisanship/ideology, the explanatory power of authoritarianism falls markedly—political orientation and identity variables often survive where authoritarianism declines [2].
2. Race and gender reshape how authoritarianism shows up in MAGA support
Recent work emphasizes that RWA does not affect all demographic groups the same way. The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics paper finds RWA strongly predicts MAGA support among white men and white women but not among women of color; the authors argue that race‑gender intersections alter how authoritarian predispositions translate into political preferences [4] [5]. LSE commentary underscores this point, noting that authoritarian dynamics “look different across race and gender” and that advantaged groups (e.g., white men) are more likely to exhibit authoritarian tendencies tied to MAGA support [1].
3. Some scholars frame Trump/MAGA as “authoritarian populism” rather than classic authoritarianism
Analysts at UC Berkeley’s Othering & Belonging Institute and reporting for Berkeley News label Trump’s style “authoritarian populism”: a hybrid in which anti‑elite rhetoric coexists with concentration of power and anti‑pluralist tendencies, distinct from “pure” authoritarians like some foreign autocrats [3]. This framing helps explain why voters may accept aggressive leaders while still operating within electoral institutions—a nuance important to scholars weighing whether MAGA equals full authoritarian takeover or a populist strain that pressures democratic norms [3].
4. Political scientists caution against one‑size‑fits‑all explanations
An Oxford chapter explicitly rejects the idea that MAGA is entirely sui generis, arguing instead that longstanding hypotheses—material grievances, social conformity preferences, and symbolic identity claims—should be pitted against one another and jointly considered; when identity measures are included, authoritarianism’s independent effect weakens [2]. Boston University commentary similarly warns that treating Trump’s victory as driven solely by support for authoritarian rule is a mistake, noting many voters cite dissatisfaction with elites or policy failures as motivations [6].
5. Critics and advocates draw very different political implications
Normative and strategic claims diverge: some commentators and activists portray MAGA as an authoritarian bloc seeking to capture institutions and deploy “authoritarian” tactics—language that pushes for an urgent defensive posture [7] [8]. Others argue that while authoritarian rhetoric exists, many supporters are motivated by perceived economic or cultural neglect and would turn away from extreme policies if costs became too high, suggesting authoritarianism among supporters is conditional rather than absolute [6].
6. What the literature does not (yet) settle—and why that matters
Available sources show consistent empirical links between RWA and MAGA support but also clear evidence that identity, partisan loyalty, and material grievances matter; they do not establish a single causal pathway that explains all MAGA support [2] [1]. Nor do these sources resolve whether MAGA will translate into sustained authoritarian governance if political opportunities arise—some scholars warn of guardrail erosion, others highlight democratic resilience and conditionality among voters [3] [6].
Conclusion: political scientists converge on a mixed diagnosis—authoritarian tendencies are a significant part of the MAGA coalition, especially among advantaged demographic groups, but identity politics, partisan sorting, and material concerns interplay in complex ways; interpreting MAGA as flatly “authoritarian” simplifies a contested, empirical literature [1] [2].