When does the federal government typically announce annual pay adjustments and COLA for 2026?

1. How the calendar usually unfolds: pay raises vs. COLA

Federal civilian pay adjustments (GS base, locality, and any special pay actions) are typically proposed in budget materials and clarified in an administration “alternative pay plan” letter well before the new year, with final pay tables published by OPM around December and implementation in the first pay period beginning on or after January 1 ^{[1] [5]}. By contrast, the Social Security COLA that affects retirees is calculated from the CPI-W for the third quarter (July–September) and is announced by SSA in mid‑ to late October once BLS posts September inflation data ^{[3] [6]}.

2. What happened for 2026 — timeline and numbers

For 2026, the White House issued an alternative pay plan in late August 2025 directing a 1.0% across‑the‑board base increase and freezing locality pay; OPM was expected to publish final pay tables by December with the raise taking effect in the first applicable 2026 pay period ^{[2] [5] [1]}. Social Security’s 2026 COLA was announced Oct. 24, 2025 as 2.8% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September CPI release was completed following a shutdown delay ^{[4] [7] [6]}.

3. Who makes each decision and why the dates differ

The executive branch (President + OPM) and ultimately Congress control federal employee pay adjustments; administrations often send a formal alternative pay plan letter under FEPCA in late summer and OPM issues tables near year‑end ^{[8] [5]}. The COLA is a mechanical SSA computation tied to BLS CPI‑W data, so its timing depends on the BLS release calendar — that’s why SSA’s announcements reliably fall in October after third‑quarter CPI data are finalized ^{[3] [9]}.

4. Political and practical drivers that shift timing

Timing and content are vulnerable to politics and data hiccups. Administrations can exercise statutory authority to set alternative plans (hence August letters) or leave the formula to operate; Congress can pass competing pay bills (H.R. 494 / S. 216 and other proposals were reported) that would change raises, creating uncertainty late into the year ^{[8] [10]}. For COLA, a government shutdown or delayed BLS data can push the SSA announcement later in October, as happened before the Oct. 24, 2025 announcement ^{[7] [11]}.

5. Practical takeaways for federal employees and retirees

Active federal employees should watch three moments: the administration’s late‑summer alternative pay plan (often August), OPM’s December release of final pay tables, and implementation in the first pay period in January ^{[8] [5] [1]}. Retirees on Social Security (and federal retirees whose COLA follows SSA) should expect the COLA announcement in mid‑ to late October each year after the BLS posts September CPI‑W data — plan for the adjustment to take effect Jan. 1 ^{[3] [4]}.

6. Disagreements in the record and what to watch next

Sources show competing narratives: several outlets reported the White House chose a 1.0% base raise with locality frozen (administration letters and OPM guidance) while lawmakers and unions pushed larger Congressional proposals ^{[2] [10]}. For COLA, the methodology is fixed (third‑quarter CPI‑W comparison) but the exact announcement date can shift if BLS timing changes; in 2025 the date moved to Oct. 24 because of delayed BLS data ^{[3] [7]}. Watch for late legislative action or OPM updates that can alter implementation details through December ^{[5] [1]}.

Limitations and sources: This piece relies on official administration/OPM reporting and contemporaneous coverage of the 2026 pay plan and SSA’s COLA announcement (sources cited: ^[1], ^[2], ^[5], ^[3], ^[4], ^[4]2). Available sources do not mention any alternate official publication schedule beyond those events; for claims not in these documents, not found in current reporting.