Which demographic groups are driving recent declines in Trump’s approval, and how do different polls measure them?
Executive summary
Recent polls show Trump’s approval slipping most sharply among working- and low-income voters, younger cohorts (notably Gen Z), independents and—by some measures—men, with immigration and economic handling cited as principal drivers; different pollsters capture these shifts by varying sample frames, question wording and subgroup definitions, producing somewhat divergent magnitudes but a consistent directional story [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. The headline: who’s moving away and why
Multiple national surveys report erosion in Trump's support among working-class and lower-income Americans, with one YouGov/Economist wave finding approval among those earning $50,000 or less as low as 31 percent and net ratings deeply negative, and Newsweek highlighting a swing that left Trump with a -18 net among working-class respondents in a recent Economist/YouGov poll [6] [1] [2]. Polls also flag sharp falls in approval on immigration—an issue central to his brand—where Reuters/Ipsos found a record low approval and a majority saying his crackdown has gone too far, tying policy actions and enforcement incidents to public reaction [7] [8]. Younger voters, particularly Gen Z, show pronounced reversals in favorability and approval in multiple outlets’ reporting, which could presage long-term coalition drift if sustained [3].
2. The independent and gender splits: nuance, not unanimity
Independent voters are repeatedly noted as moving away, amplifying the overall decline in net approval recorded by Economist/YouGov and AP-NORC; those polls show Trump in the low‑40s approval range nationally and deeper disapproval among swing voters [1] [4]. Gender trends are messier: some Newsweek reporting highlights recovery among certain male cohorts—disapproval among men dropping from 69 percent to 62 percent over a period—suggesting intra‑male variation and that any male “bounce” is neither uniform nor large enough to offset losses elsewhere [9].
3. How polls measure the shifts—and why numbers differ
Different pollsters use distinct sampling frames (online panels vs. probability samples), question order and subgroup categories (e.g., “working class” vs. income brackets), producing different point estimates even when trends align; Economist/YouGov and AP‑NORC provide detailed subgroup breakdowns used in Newsweek and Forbes analyses, Reuters/Ipsos emphasizes immigration-specific questions tied to current enforcement events, and Gallup’s longer time series contextualizes how declines on immigration, the Middle East and the economy have accumulated over months [1] [4] [7] [5]. Margin-of-error differences and timing around high-profile events (raids, shootings, policy rollouts) also explain short-term wiggles reported across outlets [7] [5].
4. Issue drivers: immigration and the wallet
Polling convergence points to immigration and pocketbook concerns as leading causes of slippage: Reuters/Ipsos finds a majority saying the crackdown has gone too far [7], while Forbes and Gallup detail double-digit drops over the year in public ratings on immigration and the economy, the latter especially affecting lower-income voters whose approval has swung most dramatically [4] [5]. Analysts in Bloomberg and The Fulcrum interpret these declines as materially damaging to GOP prospects in 2026 if the trends persist, though interpretations vary on permanence [10] [11].
5. Competing narratives and limitations in the record
Pro‑Trump outlets frame low approval as irrelevant to policy success or base consolidation (Fox News commentary), while mainstream outlets stress coalition erosion and potential midterm consequences [12] [13]. Available reporting gives clear directional trends but cannot definitively prove permanence or causal sequencing—polls differ in definitions of “working class,” timing around specific events varies, and some claims (e.g., exact causes of Gen Z shift) rest on cross‑sectional associations rather than longitudinal individual-level tracking [3] [1] [4].
6. Bottom line for 2026 politics
Across credible national polls the decline is driven primarily by weakening support among working- and lower-income voters, younger voters (notably Gen Z), and independents, with immigration policy and economic perceptions supplying the proximate explanations; poll methods and subgroup definitions vary, so watchers should read the broad pattern—directional decline across several key blocs—rather than fixate on any single point estimate [1] [2] [7] [6].