Which income groups most likely to support Trump in 2026?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s strongest recent support has clustered among lower‑income and working‑class voters — broadly defined as households earning under roughly $50,000 and voters without a four‑year college degree — a pattern reinforced in 2024 and visible in early 2026 approval polling, while support among middle‑income voters ($50k–$100k) is softer and volatile [1] [2] [3]. County‑level analyses also show outsized Trump performance in economically distressed and “transfer‑reliant” places where public benefits make up a larger share of income, suggesting geography and economic insecurity matter as much as headline income brackets [4] [5].
1. Low‑income and working‑class voters remain the backbone of Trump’s coalition
Multiple post‑2024 accounts and exit‑poll based analyses indicate that voters in lower income brackets and those lacking a college degree were pivotal to Trump’s victory, with data showing roughly half of the poorest voters in key states supporting him and exit polls reporting a 56–42 split among voters without a college degree in favor of Trump over Harris [5] [2]. Newsweek and Financial Times reporting highlight rebounds in approval among adults in households earning under $50,000, framing this cohort as a vital and mobile electorate that could determine midterm outcomes if economic anxiety persists [1] [6].
2. Transfer‑reliant and distressed counties amplified Trump’s vote share
Beyond individual income brackets, Economic Innovation Group analysis finds Trump performed exceptionally well in counties where a large share of personal income comes from transfers — he captured about 63 percent in “significantly reliant” counties where transfers account for at least a quarter of income — indicating communities dependent on safety‑net income skewed Republican in 2024 [4]. That county‑level finding complicates a simple income story: small or moderate household incomes embedded in distressed local economies can tilt toward Trump even where federal aid plays a larger role [4].
3. Middle‑income voters are the swing zone and show early erosion
Polling into early 2026 suggests the $50,000–$100,000 bracket is less reliably pro‑Trump and has shown declining approval for his performance; one YouGov/Economist snapshot reported only about 40 percent approval among that segment in December, down from earlier months, signaling vulnerability for the president’s prospects if economic perceptions worsen [3]. CNN’s January 2026 poll found broad public negativity about the economy under Trump, a dynamic that could push marginal middle‑income voters away from the incumbent if wages and prices remain salient issues [7].
4. Income intersects with education, race and age — don’t treat brackets as monoliths
Pew Research and academic tools from Northeastern emphasize that income cannot be divorced from education, race and age: Trump’s 2024 voters were less likely to have college degrees and older on average, but his coalition grew more racially diverse than in 2016, including gains among Hispanic and Black voters within certain lower‑income, less‑educated cohorts [8] [9]. Northeastern’s interactive tool demonstrates that subgroup combinations — for example, Hispanic males with a high school education earning under $100k — shifted toward Trump, underscoring that income interacts with identity and education to shape behavior [9].
5. Outlook for 2026 and key caveats
Predicting 2026 support by income hinges on whether voters credit policy or blame current economic pain: surveys show many Americans believe Trump’s policies have worsened the economy so far, a headwind if perceptions deepen [7]. Conversely, targeted recovery in real wages or visible cost‑of‑living relief could blunt defections among working and lower‑middle income voters [3] [10]. The available sources cover 2024 vote patterns, county‑level dependence on transfers, and early 2026 polling, but comprehensive, nationally representative 2026 income‑by‑vote breakdowns are not yet published here — the Census and Roper Center maintain datasets that will be essential once released for a definitive accounting [11] [12].