Which demographic subgroups within the Republican Party are most likely to believe the 2020 election was stolen, according to national surveys?
Executive summary
A large plurality of Republican identifiers continue to say the 2020 election was “stolen,” and national surveys point to three clear within‑party fault lines: party conservatives and MAGA‑aligned Republicans, regular consumers of Fox News and far‑right television, and those who place primary trust in Trump rather than election institutions; multiple national polls and analyses document these patterns [1] [2] [3]. Poll wording, media ecosystem, and ideological intensity shape how strongly subgroups endorse the “stolen” claim, and scholars emphasize that belief persists even as legal and statistical reviews found no evidence of systematic fraud [4] [5].
1. Conservative and MAGA Republicans — the core believers
Surveys consistently show that ideological conservatives and those aligned with the MAGA wing are the most likely Republicans to say the 2020 election was stolen: PRRI found roughly two‑thirds of Republicans endorsed the claim in multiple waves (66% in 2021 and 63% in 2023), a figure concentrated among the party’s more conservative cohort [1]. Reporting and polling analyses likewise find that conservative Republicans are more likely than moderates to assert there is “solid evidence” of fraud rather than merely expressing suspicion, a split highlighted by CNN/SSRS coverage summarized by Forbes [5]. These data point to ideology — not mere partisanship — as a central predictor inside the GOP.
2. Viewers and trusters of Fox News and far‑right TV — media matters
Trust in specific media sources is among the strongest correlates of belief: PRRI and related fact checks report that Republicans who say they most trust Fox News or far‑right television are far more likely to say the election was stolen — with one PRRI finding that 82% of Republicans who most trusted Fox News agreed with the stolen claim in 2021 [1] [3]. PRRI’s 2023 data showed 92% of those who most trusted far‑right TV and 65% of those who most trusted Fox held the stolen view, underscoring a tight link between media ecosystem and belief [1].
3. Trump‑trusting Republicans — leader over institutions
A distinct subgroup consists of Republicans who place primary trust in Donald Trump’s statements over official results; AP‑NORC reporting framed this as respondents who trust only Trump for election news and who now distrust election institutions [2]. Polls summarized by the AP and Reuters/Ipsos show that many Republicans who trust Trump or cite him as a primary information source are especially resistant to corrections and audits, a dynamic that helps explain persistence of the “Big Lie” despite court losses and audits [6] [2].
4. Nuances: moderates, evidence awareness, and question wording
Not all Republicans are monolithic: surveys indicate moderates are more likely to accept the election’s legitimacy or to couch doubts as “suspicion” rather than proof; CNN/SSRS coverage noted moderate Republicans were likelier to say results were legitimate and less likely to insist on “solid evidence” [5]. Analysts also warn that question wording and the evolving news cycle influence estimates — some GOP respondents say they doubt legitimacy while simultaneously acknowledging a lack of solid evidence, a mismatch documented in longitudinal polls [5] [7].
5. Why it matters and what the surveys don’t show
The pattern that ideology, media trust, and deference to Trump explain most within‑party variation has consequences for political behavior and institutional trust: scholars link such beliefs to reduced faith in electoral institutions and changed civic engagement patterns among subsets of Republicans, while statistical and legal reviews have found no evidence of fraud sufficient to change the outcome [8] [4]. Existing reporting and polls, however, leave unanswered finer demographic correlates (age, education, race) within Republicans in consistent, comparable multi‑poll detail in the provided sources; where such subgroup breakdowns exist they often vary by pollster and question framing, so definitive cross‑poll claims about, for example, education or generational splits are not supported by the specific sources cited here [1] [5].