What demographic groups among Trump voters are most likely to say they regret supporting him?
Executive summary
A narrow but politically significant slice of 2024 Trump voters now say they regret or are disappointed in their choice: some polls find only a few percent would change their vote, while targeted surveys and ethnic-group polling show much higher remorse among specific demographics — especially Latino supporters and some independents in swing states [1] [2] [3]. The evidence is mixed, so any claim about a broad “wave” of regret must be hedged by divergent poll results and different question wordings [4] [3].
1. Latino Trump voters: a clear hotspot of regret in advocacy polling
Polling conducted by the Latino-focused organization Somos Votantes reported that 36% of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now say they are disappointed or regret their decision, framing the shift primarily as economic disappointment and broken promises — a finding presented as sustained deterioration over several quarters [2].
2. Independents and swing-state conservatives: regret clustered around economic concerns
National polling and focus groups by Navigator Research show that about 11% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024 explicitly regretted their vote, with another sizable share “disappointed,” and that independent voters in key swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina) featured prominently among those expressing deep regret and frustration [1]. The New York Times/Siena analysis likewise found that defectors disproportionately name economic issues as the biggest problem — 44% of Trump defectors cite the economy — suggesting economic pain is a common thread among those who soured [5].
3. Young voters and Gen Z: declining approval, a likely source of remorse
Multiple outlets document large drops in approval and elevated negativity among younger voters: Gen Z’s approval for Trump fell sharply in early months of the administration according to Harvard’s Ash Center analysis, and independent reporting flagged a large net negative among young voters, implying a surge in disappointment even though young turnout and preferences shifted in 2024 [6] [7]. While those data track approval more than explicit “regret,” the trend is consistent with higher remorse rates among younger Trump supporters.
4. The pro-regret narrative collides with polls showing loyalty remains high
At the same time, several reputable polls and analyses find regret among Trump voters is small. UMass/YouGov and other polls cited by outlets put the share of Trump voters who would change their 2024 vote as low as 2–4 percent, with most Trump voters remaining confident in their decision [3] [8]. Writers who synthesize multiple surveys argue that anecdotal stories of regret are real but not yet numerically large enough to be decisive nationally [4].
5. Reconciling conflicts and the limits of current data
Differences in reported regret stem from question wording (regret vs. “would switch”), sample framing (national vs. subgroup/ethnic polling), timing, and margin-of-error for small subgroups — all of which make direct comparisons hazardous [4] [1] [2]. Advocacy polls highlight concentrated remorse among Latino voters; national cross‑tabs and representative trackers show a small overall “would switch” pool but detectable discontent among independents and the young [2] [1] [3]. Reporting does not yet establish a single demographic “most likely” in absolute terms across all datasets; instead it points to elevated regret among Latino Trump voters in targeted polling, and meaningful — if smaller numerically — remorse among independents and younger supporters in national and focus‑group data [2] [1] [6].