Why are trumps approval ratings low if he is doing everything he promised?
Executive summary
Polls show President Trump’s approval rating clustering in the high 30s to low 40s: Reuters/Ipsos and several outlets reported a recent reading of 41% (with other polls at 38% or as low as 36%), while aggregated trackers and niche polls produce varying numbers (net approval around -13.5 to -18 in some trackers) [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. Available sources do not mention every specific promise the president has made; they instead identify gaps between administration messaging and public perceptions on issues such as cost of living, inflation, immigration, and high-profile controversies [2] [6].
1. Polarization and competing baselines: why "doing everything he promised" doesn't move the needle
Trump retains overwhelmingly strong support inside his party—Republican favorability in some polls is above 80%—but national approval reflects a polarized electorate where Democrats and many independents disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos and Civiqs both show stark divides that leave overall approval stuck in the high 30s/low 40s despite solid GOP unity [1] [7]. In short: delivering pledges pleases core voters but does not sway the opposing coalition that forms a durable part of national opinion [1] [7].
2. Economics: headline claims vs. lived experience on the cost of living
Multiple polls show that Trump's handling of the cost of living and the economy is a particular drag—Reuters/Ipsos found approval on cost-of-living measures among the public at only about 31% (up from 26%), and other surveys put economic approval even lower [1] [2]. Even when administration actions are framed as delivering on promises, voters judge pocketbook effects directly; if prices and inflation remain visible problems, that dampens overall ratings [2] [6].
3. Recent events and controversies amplify negative perceptions
Polling drops tracked by Reuters and other outlets tied at least part of Trump’s decline to external controversies—investigations such as the Jeffrey Epstein-related reporting and the fallout from the government shutdown—both of which reduced approval into the high 30s in November [2] [8]. These episodic shocks can offset gains from policy wins and keep aggregate approval lower even amid claims of promise-keeping [2] [8].
4. Poll variation: different methods, different snapshots
Surveys and trackers diverge: Reuters/Ipsos and some national polls report about 38–41% approval, Gallup put a recent figure at 36%, RealClear averages were ~42.9%, The Economist/YouGov shows net approval down into the -18 range, and Harvard CAPS/Harris reported a notably higher 47% in December—differences reflect sampling frames, question wording, timing, and whether polls weight registered or likely voters [1] [3] [9] [5] [10]. This methodological variation explains part of the public confusion about "how low" approval really is [4].
5. Demographic shifts and erosion among earlier supporters
Several outlets document slippage among groups that once buoyed Trump: independents, white college-educated men, and some one-time supporters have moved away in recent months, linked to concerns about immigration and the economy [6] [3]. Shifts in key demographics create outsized effects on national approval even if core Republican support remains high [6].
6. Messaging and vigor: perception of leadership matters as much as policy
Opinion writers and analysts point to ways the president presents himself—energy, tone, and governing style—as factors shaping public sentiment. The New York Times argued that diminished vigor and a governing persona that many find alienating help explain why approval lags even when the administration says it is following through [11]. Public affective response to leadership can blunt the persuasive value of policy accomplishments [11].
7. What this means politically and for future numbers
Short-term upticks are possible—Reuters noted a recent rise tied to cost-of-living messaging and Republican consolidation—but underlying vulnerabilities (economics, controversies, demographic erosion) leave room for both recovery and further decline, depending on events and whether policy effects become visible to more voters [1] [2] [5]. Polls will keep diverging until longer-term trends—real changes in inflation, unemployment, or major political events—change the electorate’s assessment [1] [2].
Limitations and source notes: this analysis relies on recent national and tracker polls and commentary cited above; available sources do not list every promise the president claims to have fulfilled, nor do they quantify the causal effect of any single policy on approval in a way that would definitively prove a promise-success paradox [1] [2] [11].