Is Donald Trump going to be impeached
Executive summary
Donald Trump faces a growing, organized push for impeachment in the 119th Congress — multiple resolutions have been filed and a bloc of representatives has advanced articles — but as of early January 2026 no full House impeachment trial has been initiated and the outcome hinges on midterm control of the House and the political will to move from resolution to conviction [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. In short: impeachment is possible and politically active, but not inevitable — it will depend first on whether Democrats regain a House majority and then on whether a sufficient coalition forms to pass articles and sustain a Senate conviction, factors not yet resolved [6] [7] [8].
1. Political landscape: filings, activism, and the arithmetic of impeachment
Several distinct articles and resolutions to impeach President Trump have been introduced in the current Congress — including H.Res.353, H.Res.537 and H.Res.939 — each alleging abuses of presidential power and asserting that Trump’s actions warrant impeachment and trial [1] [2] [3]. Grassroots and organized campaigns are amplifying those calls: groups like Free Speech For People and linked coalitions have mobilized petitions, public pressure and statements urging impeachment over recent executive actions, which they describe as unconstitutional [9] [10]. On the floor, a measurable step occurred when 140 House members voted to advance Representative Al Green’s articles, signaling a significant minority appetite for formal action even though tabling votes have also occurred [4] [8].
2. The institutional hurdle: House majority, Senate math, and historical precedent
Constitutionally, only the House can impeach and only the Senate can convict and remove; conviction requires a two-thirds Senate majority, a high bar that has prevented removal in Trump’s previous impeachments [6] [8]. Multiple impeachment resolutions in the House demonstrate willingness to litigate the question politically, but past experience — two impeachments in Trump’s first term that did not lead to Senate conviction — underscores the practical difficulty of translating allegations into removal absent a favorable Senate composition and bipartisan defections [6] [8].
3. Timing and electoral leverage: why the 2026 midterms matter
Both the president and House leaders have framed the likelihood of future impeachment around the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson warning that Democrats retaking the House would make impeachment likely and Democrats signaling they would pursue it if they regain control [7] [11] [6]. Political strategists and polling-informed activists see the midterms as the pivotal moment: House control determines whether a majority will have the institutional authority and incentive to move from resolutions to formal impeachment proceedings [7] [5].
4. Evidence, messaging, and the public argument for and against
Proponents point to recent unilateral military actions, public statements accusing judges and lawmakers of criminality, and alleged obstruction related to document releases as grounds for impeachment, and activists frame these as an ongoing pattern of abuses warranting congressional remedy [2] [3] [10]. Opponents and many House Republicans argue that investigations have not produced the kind of criminal proof that would justify impeachment, that impeachment is a partisan weapon with electoral risks, and that the administration will defend its actions as lawful and necessary; those counterarguments are reflected in the tabling of some resolutions and GOP messaging at retreats [8] [11].
5. Probability assessment: current facts to an uncertain future
At present there is a credible, organized impeachment movement with multiple formal filings and measurable support in the House, but no completed impeachment vote or Senate trial as of early January 2026; predictive measures and commentators place impeachment as possible but contingent — for example, short-term odds markets and some reporting indicate rising but still modest probabilities absent a change in House control [5] [4]. Therefore the most accurate answer is conditional: Donald Trump could be impeached if Democrats retake the House and choose to act on the existing resolutions and allegations, but as of the available reporting he has not been impeached and success would still face high political and procedural hurdles [6] [5] [4].