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How did U.S. border crossing numbers change year-by-year under each presidential administration since 1990?
Executive summary
U.S. border “encounters” rose sharply during the Biden years, peaking in 2023 at roughly 3.2 million CBP-recorded encounters nationwide and roughly 3 million+ at the southern border in recent peak years, while the Trump administrations (first and second terms) claim much lower encounter totals after policy changes; federal and media accounts report roughly 1.4 million encounters in Trump's highest recent year [1] and about 238,000 Border Patrol stops in FY2025 (partly under Trump) according to reporting [2] [3]. Available sources show large year-to-year swings tied to policy changes (Title 42, parole programs, enforcement actions) and differing ways agencies and advocates count “encounters,” “apprehensions,” “removals” and “gotaways,” which complicates direct per‑administration, year‑by‑year comparisons [4] [5].
1. What the headline numbers mean — encounters, apprehensions, removals
Federal and news accounts rely on several distinct metrics: “encounters” or “encounters nationwide” (CBP’s total contacts), Border Patrol “apprehensions” between ports of entry, “removals/expulsions” and estimated “gotaways” (people who evaded detection). FactCheck and Newsweek emphasize that raw encounter totals mix outcomes — removals, transfers to HHS/ICE, releases and gotaways — so a high encounter count doesn’t map directly to net admissions or removals without deeper breakdowns [4] [2].
2. Trends under the Biden administration (2021–2024) — big increases, a 2023 peak
Multiple outlets and fact checks show encounters rose markedly after 2021, with a notable peak in 2023: Newsweek cites 3.2 million encounters in 2023 and indicates the monthly average under Biden was nearly 160,000 at one point [2] [5]. FactCheck reports millions of southern border arrivals during Biden’s term with substantial numbers removed or returned (about 2.8 million removed/returned through October in one accounting) and millions more released or transferred, illustrating why total encounters were much larger than net admissions [4].
3. Trends under Trump’s first term (2017–2020) — lower than 2021–2023, but variable
Pew’s analysis of Trump-era data shows sizable year‑to‑year variation: apprehensions climbed in some years (2018–2019) and reached about 851,508 in FY2019, still below some earlier decades’ peaks but well above the lowest years [6]. News and agency statements highlight that enforcement priorities and policies (e.g., interior enforcement, detention) changed how many were arrested, released, or removed [6].
4. Claims about dramatic post‑2025 drops — administration messaging vs. media checks
White House and DHS releases in 2025 claim historic, record-low apprehension levels after policy shifts and assert huge percentage reductions versus the Biden era, including single‑day and monthly lows [7] [8] [9]. Independent outlets and fact‑checking reporting, however, note these claims can be misleading if they compare different time windows (e.g., a few days vs. a full year) or mix metrics (encounters vs. gotaways), and PBS found some White House comparisons overstated percentage drops when using inconsistent baselines [10].
5. Why year‑by‑year tables are hard to produce from headlines alone
Available sources here provide select year totals (e.g., 3.2 million in 2023; 1.4 million in Trump’s 2019 high) and many administration claims about later declines, but they do not supply a complete, consistently measured table of year‑by‑year border crossing numbers by administration from 1990 onward. FactCheck and Newsweek underscore that counting methodology (what counts as an encounter or as a repeat) matters; some sources include northern/coastal/airport encounters while others focus on the Southwest land border, so cross‑year comparisons require harmonized CBP/DHS datasets, which are not fully reproduced in these briefings [4] [2].
6. Conflicting narratives and implicit agendas to watch
DHS and White House releases in 2024–2025 frame declines as policy successes and emphasize “zero releases” or historic lows [7] [8]. Congressional or partisan briefings (e.g., House Homeland Security Committee fact sheets) emphasize large cumulative encounter totals under opponents to argue crises [11]. News organizations and fact‑checkers push back on selective baselines and note the need to separate encounters from ultimate outcomes [10] [4]. Each actor uses chosen metrics to support policy narratives.
7. What you’d need to build a definitive year‑by‑year chart
To produce a reliable, administration‑by‑administration year table since 1990 you need CBP’s annual breakdowns of: total encounters (nationwide), Southwest border apprehensions, removals/expulsions, releases/transfers, and estimates of gotaways — all measured consistently year to year. The sources provided summarize peaks and claims but do not supply a full harmonized series back to 1990, so a complete table is not available in current reporting (not found in current reporting) [2] [4].
If you want, I can: (A) extract CBP annual totals for encounters, apprehensions and removals where available from primary CBP/DHS yearly reports (you’ll need to supply those or allow me to search external datasets), or (B) draft a provisional chart limited to the years explicitly cited in these sources (2019, 2021–2025) and flag methodological caveats. Which do you prefer?