Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
How did 18-29 year old turnout in 2024 compare to 2020 and 2016?
Executive summary
Estimates from Tufts’s CIRCLE center cluster around either a 42% or 47% turnout rate for 18–29 year olds in 2024, down from the roughly 50–55% turnout CIRCLE and other outlets estimated for 2020, and above the 2016 youth turnout that most CIRCLE reporting puts in the high 30s–low 40s (around 39–44%) [1] [2] [3]. Reporting differences reflect whether the number is an early exit-poll/voter-file estimate (42% ±1) or a later aggregated estimate approaching 47% [1] [2].
1. What the major estimates say — numbers and disagreements
CIRCLE’s contemporaneous reporting offers two headline figures widely cited: an early, exit-poll/voter-file based estimate of 42% youth turnout overall in 2024 (±1% margin of error) and a later Tufts summary saying “close to half” (47%) [1] [2]. For 2020, CIRCLE’s best estimate is roughly 50% of 18–29-year-olds voting (some CIRCLE communications and secondary sources put the 2020 range as high as 52–55%) [3] [4]. For 2016, CIRCLE’s retrospective estimates are much lower — often cited near 39% (sometimes 42–44% in early Statista/CIRCLE summaries) — meaning 2024 was clearly above 2016 levels even if it did not match 2020’s surge [3] [4] [2].
2. Why the numbers don’t line up perfectly — methods and timing
Different figures arise because organizations use distinct methods: exit polls, aggregated voter-file counts (which become more accurate over time), and survey-based validated-voter approaches produce different rates and margins. CIRCLE warns its early 42% figure has a ±1% margin and that voter-file revisions could raise or lower the estimate; a later CIRCLE write-up framed youth turnout as “close to half” (47%), reflecting updated aggregation [1] [2]. Statista and contemporaneous news accounts also cite upper and lower early estimates for 2016 and 2020, which accounts for the apparent contradictions [4].
3. The broad pattern across elections
All major sources agree on the directional story: youth turnout spiked in 2020 relative to 2016, falling back in 2024 but remaining above or similar to 2016 depending on the chosen estimate. CIRCLE’s core narrative: 2020 was an exceptional youth mobilization (roughly 50% or higher), 2016 was much lower (~39–44%), and 2024 was lower than 2020 but noticeably higher than pre-2020 years in some estimates — though whether 2024 was “on par” with 2016 or clearly better depends on which CIRCLE number (42% vs. 47%) you accept [3] [1] [2].
4. Demographic and geographic nuance
CIRCLE emphasizes large disparities within the youth cohort: turnout varied sharply by race, gender, and state. Examples: in one CIRCLE release youth turnout ranged from 58% for young white women to 25% for young Black men, and battleground states showed higher aggregate youth participation (about 50% in GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI in 2024 per CIRCLE) [2] [1]. Those internal splits mean headline percentages mask important inequities and localized surges or declines [2] [1].
5. What analysts and secondary sources note about causes
Reporting cites several likely drivers: registration shortfalls among newly eligible 18–19-year-olds, declines in mail voting compared with 2020, and differing state registration and early-voting laws that helped sustain higher youth turnout in some battlegrounds [5] [1] [6]. CIRCLE and university analysts warned pre-election that youth registration lagged many states behind 2020 levels, which likely pressured turnout even where mobilization efforts were strong [5].
6. How to interpret the takeaways and limitations
Available sources do not present a single, definitive national percentage for 2024 youth turnout; instead they offer a range (about 42%–47%) and a consistent comparative picture: 2020 was an unusually high youth turnout year, 2016 was substantially lower, and 2024 fell between them — higher than 2016 on most CIRCLE measures but clearly below 2020’s peak [1] [3] [2]. Final voter-file reconciliations and differing methodological choices will continue to produce slightly different headline numbers [1].
7. Bottom line for readers
If your frame is “Did youth participate more in 2024 than in 2016?” the answer in available reporting is yes: most authoritative CIRCLE-derived estimates put 2024 above 2016 turnout [2] [3]. If your question is “Did youth turnout in 2024 match 2020?” the best-supported answer is no — 2024 was generally lower than 2020’s exceptional surge [1] [3]. Use the 42%–47% 2024 range and note methodological caveats when citing a single figure [1] [2].