Is attendance to U.S. mega churches dropping in the 2020s?
Executive summary
Attendance patterns for U.S. megachurches in the 2020s are mixed: many large congregations remained strong or grew in the early 2020s, with studies finding roughly 1,750–1,800 Protestant megachurches and average weekly attendance in the multiple-thousands (e.g., avg. ~3,500–4,100) [1] [2] [3]. At the same time, reporting documents pandemic-driven drops at specific high-profile megachurches and broader national declines in regular church participation, leaving overall trajectory contested [4] [3] [5].
1. Big-picture numbers: megachurches are numerous and still large
Research and databases show roughly 1,750–1,800 Protestant megachurches in the U.S.; Hartford and related studies report average weekly attendance measured in the thousands (an average of about 4,092 in one dataset and other reporting cites roughly 3,500) [1] [2] [3]. Multiple sources stress that the megachurch phenomenon expanded rapidly since the 1990s and remained a significant slice of U.S. Protestant life into the 2020s [2] [6].
2. Growth and resilience: many megachurches “mostly grow” post-2015
Lifeway and Hartford-linked reporting found the average megachurch in surveyed samples grew 34% since 2015, and many megachurches expanded beyond raw worship attendance into multisite campuses, small-group networks, and other ministries that register growth even if single-service counts vary [1] [7] [8].
3. The pandemic punctuated stability with sharp local declines
The COVID-19 pandemic caused attendance shocks. Some prominent megachurches reported major losses — for example, reporting shows Willow Creek’s attendance and staffing shrank substantially after the pandemic [4]. News coverage also notes individual megachurches “took a hit” during COVID even while the overall category retained many large congregations [3] [4].
4. Multisite and service proliferation complicate attendance counts
Researchers emphasize that many megachurches operate multiple campuses and many weekend services, so per-service attendance may understate total participation; seating capacities and how attendance is counted vary, which makes simple before/after comparisons fraught [7] [8] [9]. The Hartford study warns attendance definitions differ across outlets and churches [2].
5. Diverging trends: big churches often grow while small ones shrink
Several analysts argue the growth dynamics favor large, often non‑denominational churches while smaller congregations decline, widening a gap in the American religious landscape; commentators and ministry blogs attribute this to strategy, demographics, and resource differences [10] [11] [12].
6. National context: overall church participation is falling
Independent national polling and commentary show an erosion of regular church involvement across the U.S.: broader measures of religiosity and church attendance have dropped, and some reporting projects large numbers of church closures in the mid‑2020s — trends that contrast with the relative strength of many megachurches [5] [13] [14].
7. Conflicting narratives and where evidence diverges
Scholars and journalists disagree about whether the megachurch era is peaking or simply transforming: Hartford and allied researchers argue “reports of the demise” are exaggerated and document growth in numbers and innovation (multisite, small groups) [2] [7], while other commentators point to pandemic-caused declines at specific institutions and warn of a waning megachurch movement [4] [15]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, sector-wide attendance collapse for all megachurches in the 2020s.
8. What to watch next—data limitations and indicators
Reliable, up-to-date sector-wide attendance data remain limited; the most comprehensive megachurch study cited was fielded in 2020 and researchers and reporters use different counting rules [8] [2]. Key metrics to watch: updated Hartford or Faith Communities Today surveys, national polls on weekly attendance, multisite vs. single-site reporting, and denominational data on closures and staff cuts [16] [5] [14].
9. Takeaway for readers
The simplest, evidence-based conclusion: megachurches as a category remained numerous and, for many congregations, sizable into the 2020s, even as the pandemic and a broader decline in U.S. religiosity produced notable local losses and created uncertainty about future growth—claims of a universal collapse are not supported by the available reporting [1] [2] [5].
Limitations: this assessment relies on studies and journalism through the mid‑2020s; sources use different definitions and counting methods for “attendance” and “megachurch,” which complicates precise trend estimates [9] [2] [8].