How have weekly attendance numbers at the largest U.S. megachurches changed since 2019?
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Executive summary
Weekly attendance at U.S. megachurches shows a mixed picture since 2019: many large churches fell sharply during the pandemic but a substantial share have recovered and even exceeded pre‑pandemic levels by 2025, with one early survey reporting 53% of megachurches (2,000+ attenders) up at least 10% from 2019 [1]. Sector‑level data are contradictory: some reports show many megachurches still operating below pre‑2020 attendance, while compiled denominational reports list average megachurch in‑person weekend attendance between ~4,447 and 6,119 depending on sample and whether online is included [2] [3] [4].
1. Pandemic shock then partial rebound — what surveys say
Researchers and large‑church trackers agree the pandemic caused a steep drop in in‑person attendance; some high‑profile megachurches reported declines of roughly half their pre‑Covid numbers, and analysts note many large congregations were hit hardest [3] [1]. Yet newer survey snapshots and early 2025 findings indicate a sizable rebound: an early Large Church Survey headline cited by unSeminary reports 53% of megachurches (defined there as 2,000+ weekly) have come back at least 10% above 2019 levels [1]. Lifeway and other sector reports also document that about half of churches report post‑pandemic growth in recent periods, undercutting narratives of universal decline [5].
2. Different datasets, different conclusions — methodology matters
“Megachurch attendance” varies by source because counts are self‑reported, sometimes combine in‑person and online, and sample frames differ. Outreach’s lists and Hartford Institute figures are based on self‑reported weekend averages; Christian Standard’s compilation gives an in‑person megachurch average of 4,447 from a set of 33 churches but also reports higher averages when online is included [4] [2]. Journalists and researchers warn that public rankings often mix churches that report Sunday seats, online reach, or membership rolls rather than comparable physical weekly attendance [4] [6].
3. Who’s growing — geography and demographics
Independent analysis finds megachurches concentrate in fast‑growing counties, suggesting local population change drives attendance opportunities; counties containing megachurches were far likelier to have double‑digit growth between 2010 and 2020 [7]. Demographically, Barna‑cited statistics highlighted in multiple summaries show millennials’ weekly attendance rose from 21% in 2019 to 39% by 2022 — a shift that may help some suburban and nondenominational megachurches regain numbers [8] [9].
4. The uneven recovery — winners and losers
Reports point to a split within the megachurch world: some congregations regained and surpassed 2019 attendance, while others remain well below, with some large churches shrinking below the 2,000‑attender megachurch threshold post‑pandemic [3] [1]. ChurchAnswers and other commentators note the movement of some megachurches downward in size and fewer newly built large sanctuaries, indicating structural contraction in parts of the cohort [3].
5. What growth metrics reveal — beyond raw attendance
Recent sector syntheses emphasize not just headcounts but conversions, baptisms and online reach. Christian Standard’s compilation reports megachurches averaged hundreds of baptisms and substantial Christmas‑Eve spikes; Lifeway’s research highlights changes in conversion rates per 100 attendees versus 2019 [2] [5]. These measures suggest some churches are increasing depth or outreach even when aggregate in‑person totals are volatile [2] [5].
6. Caveats and open questions
Available sources make clear limitations: many lists use self‑reported weekend averages or mix online and in‑person figures, sampling frames vary, and some recent findings are preliminary [4] [1]. Comprehensive, standardized national tracking of megachurch weekly attendance since 2019 is not presented in a single source among the documents provided — large claims about “most megachurches” rising or falling depend on which dataset and definition are used [4] [1].
7. Takeaway for readers
The headline is nuance: the megachurch sector was profoundly disrupted in 2020, and by 2024–2025 many but not all large churches have recovered—with some reporting stronger attendance than in 2019 and others still diminished or recategorized below the megachurch threshold [1] [3] [2]. Any assessment must specify the data source, the definition of “megachurch” (2,000+ vs. other cutoffs), and whether online worship is counted; without that, numbers are misleading [4] [6].
If you want, I can compile side‑by‑side examples (Lakewood, Willow Creek, etc.) showing reported 2019 vs. most recent published weekend averages from the Outreach/Hartford datasets and media reports, using only the sources you provide.