Are specific denominations (Catholic, mainline Protestant, evangelical) losing members faster in 2025?
Executive summary
Major 2024–25 surveys show Christianity’s long decline is slowing but continuing, and the losses are not uniform: Pew and PRRI highlight especially large Catholic losses and persistent mainline Protestant declines, while evangelical Protestant losses have narrowed or in some measures stabilized [1] [2]. Gallup and other polling show broader drops in weekly attendance and formal membership across most groups, with church membership down about 20 percentage points over two decades [3] [4].
1. What the big national surveys say — Catholics losing ground fastest
Pew’s 2025 Religious Landscape Study reports that Catholics have lost a larger share of adherents through religious switching than many other groups — the net outflow from Catholicism remains substantial — and Pew’s writeup singles out Catholics’ comparatively steep losses even as overall Christian decline may be leveling off [1] [5]. PRRI likewise reports that Catholics continue to lose more members than they gain and that a majority of former Catholics now identify as unaffiliated, marking Catholicism as one of the largest net losers among major traditions [2].
2. Mainline Protestant decline is steady and institutionally visible
Multiple outlets and denominational reports point to continuing erosion in historic “mainline” Protestant bodies (Episcopal, Presbyterian, Methodist, United Church of Christ and similar). Religion News Service and denominational statistics show shrinking membership, church closures, staff cuts and aging rolls — trends long documented and still active in 2024–25 [6] [7]. PRRI specifically notes white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants “continue losing more members than they replace” and at higher rates than many other Protestant subgroups [2].
3. Evangelicals: losses have slowed; some subgroups stable or even net-gaining
While earlier decades showed sharper drops for many Protestants, Pew and PRRI indicate the net loss among white evangelical Protestants has declined since 2016, and some evangelical streams — especially nondenominational churches and certain Baptist/Pentecostal groups — show higher retention or gains through switching [1] [5]. That said, broader polling (Gallup, MinistryWatch summaries) still finds evangelicals participating less frequently than in previous eras; the pattern is one of slower decline and heterogeneity rather than uniform growth [3] [8].
4. Attendance versus formal membership — both are falling, but not perfectly correlated
Gallup’s 2021–2023 aggregates show weekend attendance down to about 30% of U.S. adults from roughly 42% two decades earlier, and other polls show formal membership similarly down [3] [4]. However, Pew cautions that an “age gap” does not automatically mean younger people will never attend later; attendance and self-identification move differently over life cycles, so declines in membership and in-weekend attendance are related but distinct measures [1].
5. Local denominational data confirm headline trends but add nuance
Denominational reports (e.g., Presbyterian Church [U.S.A.]) document large absolute losses in recent years and predict continuing declines at current rates — PC(USA) expected to fall below one million members in 2025 if trends continued — illustrating how national percentages translate into concrete institutional stress [7]. Meanwhile, commentary and denominational press note some congregations and new “worshiping communities” can grow even as the larger body shrinks [7].
6. Why differences exist — demographics, switching patterns, and retention
Analysts point to generational change (younger Americans less affiliated), religious switching (large flows from Catholic and mainline backgrounds into “nones”), and differing retention rates (Black Protestants and some evangelical subgroups retain members at higher rates) as drivers that make losses uneven by tradition [1] [2]. Opinion pieces and denominational analyses also highlight institutional responses (schisms, progressive/conservative splits) that accelerate losses in some mainline bodies [6].
7. Limitations and competing interpretations in the sources
Pew and PRRI agree on broad patterns (Catholic and mainline losses; evangelicals more stable), while Gallup emphasizes falling attendance across most groups and long-term membership declines [1] [2] [3]. Some denominational or advocacy outlets stress resilience in particular evangelical or charismatic streams; others emphasize institutional closures and fiscal stress. Available sources do not present a single, universally accepted ranking of “fastest losing” denominations for 2025 — instead they document patterns [1] [2] [7].
8. Bottom line for the question you asked
Yes — current 2024–25 reporting shows Catholics and mainline Protestants are losing members faster in many measures, while evangelical Protestant losses have narrowed and in some measures stabilized; all groups show declines in attendance or membership compared with two decades ago, but the pace and pattern differ by tradition and metric [1] [2] [3].