How likely is a .30-06 bullet to penetrate vs remain embedded in human bone?
Executive summary
The .30-06 is a high-energy rifle cartridge that routinely produces deep penetration and can “punch through” hide, muscle and bone under many conditions; military and experimental ballistics reporting describe it penetrating soft armor and delivering significant wounding effects at shorter ranges [1]. Multiple practical and forensic sources emphasize that whether a .30-06 exits or becomes lodged depends on dozens of variables — bullet construction, range/impact velocity, intervening barriers, bone density and yaw/tumbling after bone impact — so there is no single probability that applies to every shooting [2] [3].
1. Big-picture: power, design and what “penetration” means
The .30-06 delivers high muzzle energy and is historically used for medium-to-large game and military roles because of its combination of speed and mass; technical reviews and military documents note its capacity for deep straight penetration and ability to perforate soft body armor and various barriers when loaded appropriately [1] [4]. “Penetration” in wound-balling terms refers to how far a projectile traverses tissue and what it disrupts; exit is simply the bullet continuing through and leaving the body, and that outcome hinges on energy at impact and on the projectile’s behavior in tissue [3].
2. Bullet construction changes the odds dramatically
Full-metal-jacket (FMJ) and armor‑piercing or solid-core designs prioritize retained shape and deep penetration; tests and field commentary show these rounds tend to keep moving through tissue and bone [5] [1]. By contrast, soft-point, hollow-point, or expanding hunting bullets are engineered to deform or fragment to increase tissue trauma and energy transfer — that expansion can reduce exit likelihood, especially after interacting with dense bone [2] [4].
3. Range and impact velocity are decisive
Shorter-range shots deliver higher residual velocity and therefore much greater likelihood of perforation and exit; long-range shots lose velocity and may fail to exit depending on remaining energy [2] [1]. Military and experimental materials emphasize that at “shorter ranges” the .30-06 produces “impressive” wounding and penetration in human- and deer-sized targets, implying greater exit potential close up [1].
4. Bone is a wild card — it can deflect, absorb, or create secondary projectiles
When a bullet strikes bone it may deform, yaw, tumble or fragment; these behaviors substantially change whether it exits. Forensic commentary warns that bone impact can cause yaw or fragmentation that robs the projectile of energy and may stop it internally [2] [6]. Experimental studies also show rifle rounds produce large temporary cavities and can cause bone fractures even when the bullet path is near (not directly through) the bone, complicating simple penetration predictions [7].
5. Empirical and experimental evidence: penetration is common but not guaranteed
Field guides and hunting sources repeatedly state that many .30-06 loads will “reliably punch through” thick hide, muscle and even bone, and ballistic testing shows the cartridge’s ability to perforate barriers and soft armor in many loadings [8] [1]. At the same time forensic and clinical analyses counter that the same caliber can fail to exit depending on load, bullet type, shot path, and intervening tissue or bone — the “exit wound myth” critique underscores that exit/non-exit is not a simple caliber rule [2] [3].
6. Forensic nuance: dozens of variables, not a single probability
Authoritative overviews of wounding factors list penetration as one of several determinants (permanent cavity, temporary cavity, frontal area), and they explicitly tie outcomes to bullet design, frontal area and retained velocity — not merely caliber name [3]. Forensic reviews and experimental wound-ballistic work document how temporary cavity dynamics and projectile fragmentation vary by caliber and load, meaning statistical exit probabilities must be load- and context-specific [7] [6].
7. What reporting leaves out or can be misused
Popular summaries or social-media claims that “no .30-06 ever exits” or conversely that “it always exits” are contradicted by the sources: neither absolute statement is supported [2] [8]. Some hunting and ammunition-marketing materials emphasize maximum penetration [4], while forensic and clinical literature emphasizes variability and situational mechanics [2] [6]; readers should note these differing incentives — marketing promotes capability, forensic literature emphasizes limits and complexity.
8. Bottom line for practical judgment
Available reporting shows the .30-06 commonly produces deep penetration and will often exit soft-tissue targets at typical hunting or combat ranges with non‑expanding bullets, but exit is not guaranteed — bullet type, range, anatomic path and bone impact can and do change outcomes [1] [2] [3]. Exact probabilities are not given in the reviewed sources; statistical estimates require controlled testing with the specific bullet and range in question, which the available sources do not provide (not found in current reporting).