Https://news.ucsc.edu/2024/10/global-warming-statistics/
Executive summary
The public record for 2024 shows an unmistakable spike: multiple independent datasets and monitoring services report 2024 as the warmest year on record, with several records placing the global mean near or above 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 pre‑industrial baseline, driven by long‑term human forcing and amplified by a strong El Niño in 2023–24 [1] [2] [3]. Differences between datasets—because of choices about ocean coverage, baseline periods and methods for filling gaps—mean precise numbers vary, but the qualitative picture of unprecedented recent warmth and rising greenhouse gases is consistent across sources [4] [5].
1. 2024: record heat across multiple records, but not a single number
Copernicus, WMO, Berkeley Earth and other groups converge on the conclusion that 2024 was the warmest year on record in the instrumental era, with Copernicus reporting a daily record of 17.16 °C on 22 July and ERA5-based analyses showing months and seasons at multi‑record highs [2] [6]. WMO’s consolidated analysis puts the year close to 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above pre‑industrial levels, and Berkeley Earth likewise declares 2024 the warmest year since 1850 [1] [7]. NASA and NOAA provide slightly different anomaly estimates because of methodological choices (ocean treatment, baseline period), which explains why NOAA at one point gave a lower probability that 2024 exceeded 1.5 °C while other groups reported near‑certain exceedance in at least some datasets [5] [4] [8].
2. How much of the rise is human‑caused vs natural variability
Long‑term human greenhouse‑gas emissions are the dominant driver of the multi‑decadal warming trend; contemporary analyses attribute nearly all observed warming since the late 19th century to human influence, and recent decade averages show human‑induced warming estimates close to the observed changes [9]. That said, interannual to multi‑year swings—especially the 2023–24 strong El Niño—amplified temperatures in 2024, meaning single‑year exceedances of thresholds like 1.5 °C can reflect both the underlying anthropogenic trend and short‑term natural variability [3] [4].
3. Beyond global averages: land, regions and oceans tell different stories
Land temperatures and regional statistics reveal sharper impacts than the global mean: FAO land‑based figures show regional and country‑level warming often well above the global average in 2024, with large parts of Europe and North America recording land anomalies above 2 °C versus pre‑industrial baselines [10]. Sea surface temperatures set repeated monthly records in 2024 and ocean heat content continued to climb, locking in long‑term energy storage that will sustain warming even if surface anomalies drop temporarily [11] [12].
4. Greenhouse gases, energy imbalance and the carbon budget: the hard physics
Atmospheric greenhouse‑gas concentrations reached record levels before and during 2024, and real‑time monitoring indicated continued increases into 2024, maintaining a positive Earth energy imbalance and rising ocean heat content—physical metrics that underpin the observed temperature rise and constrain the remaining carbon budget [3] [9] [12]. Reports stress that transient one‑year exceedances of temperature thresholds differ from sustained, multi‑decadal overshoot that the Paris Agreement contemplates, but they also warn the carbon budget to keep warming under specific limits is rapidly shrinking [3] [9].
5. Where scientific debate and nuance still matter
Datasets differ and methodological choices drive numerical spread: ERA5 reanalysis, instrumental compilations and individual center products (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley) use different baselines and gap‑filling approaches, which explains some conflicts over whether a given dataset shows 1.5 °C exceeded in a single year [4] [2] [5]. Some recent literature also examines aerosol and short‑lived forcings where assessments vary on net sign and magnitude, reminding that not all forcings are equally constrained and that attribution of every fraction of a degree carries uncertainty [9]. Agencies and services emphasize urgency—an implicit policy agenda to prompt mitigation and adaptation—but they base that emphasis on converging physical indicators [1] [12].
Conclusion
Independent monitoring systems paint the same broad reality: 2024 was exceptional and likely the warmest year on record, greenhouse gases and ocean heat continued to rise, and ongoing human emissions remain the primary cause even as natural variability modulated the exact magnitude; differences in precise temperature estimates reflect real methodological choices rather than contradictory science [1] [2] [9].