How has Greenland’s population changed since 1950 and what are the main drivers (fertility, mortality, migration)?

1. Post‑1950 surge: high fertility meets falling mortality

The dramatic rise from ~23,000 in 1950 to today’s mid‑50,000s is credited to a classic demographic transition: fertility remained high through the 1950s–1980s while mortality fell sharply as healthcare, sanitation and nutrition improved under modernization programs, producing substantial natural increase ^{[1] [5]}. Multiple datasets chart that mid‑century growth—Macrotrends and The World Data both trace the population climb through the late 20th century—though exact year‑to‑year counts differ by source ^{[2] [1]}.

2. Fertility’s long decline: from very high to well below replacement

Total fertility has fallen dramatically since the 1950s; some summaries place historical TFRs in the mid‑5s in the 1950s, dropping to roughly 1.7–1.9 in the 2020s, well under the 2.1 replacement threshold ^{[1] [6]}. This decline is confirmed across UN‑based compilers such as Worldometer and database aggregators, which show a sustained downward trend and medium‑variant projections that keep fertility below replacement for decades ^{[7] [8]}.

3. Mortality and longevity: big improvements, smaller immediate effect now

Mortality rates and infant deaths fell steeply in the decades after 1950, contributing to earlier population growth and a rising life expectancy; contemporary crude death rates are lower than mid‑century levels and infant mortality has shrunk markedly since the 1950s ^{[8] [9]}. Those improvements remain important—natural increase still often outpaces deaths by a few hundred people per year in recent estimates—but mortality reductions alone no longer drive growth because births have fallen ^{[5] [3]}.

4. Migration: the decisive swing toward net emigration

In recent years migration has become the dominant dampener on population growth: several trackers report positive natural increase but net outward migration large enough to produce stagnation or small declines, with estimates of net emigration on the order of a few hundred people per year ^{[1] [3] [5]}. Statistical sources and projections warn that continued youth outflow—driven by education, employment and structural economic limits tied to the Danish grant system in some analyses—could shrink the Greenland‑born population markedly by mid‑century under baseline scenarios ^{[1] [4]}.

5. Age structure and projections: aging and shrinkage unless migration reverses

Because fertility is below replacement and younger cohorts emigrate disproportionately, Greenland faces population aging and potential shrinkage: official and modelled projections cited in aggregated databases foresee declines through mid‑century absent policy changes, with some scenarios showing a drop from ~56,000 today to ~45,000 by 2050 under continued negative net migration and low fertility assumptions ^{[1] [4]}. Different forecast models (UN medium‑variant, private aggregators) produce similar directional results but vary in timing and magnitude, so precise outcomes depend on future migration and fertility shifts ^{[7] [10]}.

6. Hidden histories and data caveats

Interpretation must acknowledge contested historical policies and uneven recordkeeping: demographic trends occurred alongside disruptive policies—including documented forced birth‑control practices in past decades—which have shaped population trajectories and the demographic record in ways scholars debate ^[11]. Furthermore, public datasets differ slightly (Worldometer, Macrotrends, Countrymeters, The World Data) because of methodology and revision choices; broad patterns—mid‑century growth, later fertility decline, rising life expectancy, recent net emigration—are consistent across sources ^{[7] [2] [3] [1]}.