How many climatologists deny climate change
Executive summary
Most available sources show that outright rejection of warming’s reality among professional climatologists is vanishingly small: surveys and scientific organizations report a strong consensus (NASA cites 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agreeing humans cause warming) [1]. Reporting and fact-checking pieces show that large lists of supposed “deniers” rarely include many trained climatologists — e.g., a viral 1,107-signature declaration contained <1% climatologists or climate scientists [2].
1. What the data and major science bodies say
The mainstream measure of expert agreement is overwhelming: NASA summarizes research finding that about 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree humans are causing global warming [1]. Major science organizations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) back that position; reviews and summaries cited by authoritative agencies form the basis for the consensus statement reported by NASA [1]. Available sources do not mention a credible counter-estimate that places a substantial share of climatologists in outright denial of warming.
2. Claims, lists and the illusion of many “deniers”
High-profile lists and declarations claiming hundreds or thousands of experts deny a climate emergency often collapse on inspection. Euronews examined a viral list of about 1,200 signatories and found precisely 1,107 names — but less than 1% described themselves as climatologists or climate scientists [2]. That pattern — many names but few domain experts — is a recurring theme in reporting and fact‑checks [2].
3. How scholars distinguish “denial,” “skepticism” and “contrarianism”
Academic work cautions against blunt labels. PNAS and other scholars warn the debate includes nuances: contrarians, skeptics, and deniers are different groups with different motives and credibility, and lumping them together oversimplifies expert views [3]. Historical reviews show many scientist-skeptics have shifted from denying warming’s occurrence to questioning attribution, impacts, or policy prescriptions — a spectrum of positions that is not equivalent to outright denial [4] [5].
4. Why visible dissent can mislead public perception
Media coverage, political actors, and organized campaigns amplify a small minority into the appearance of parity. Investigations and reporting document long-running campaigns and industry funding that have nurtured and publicized dissenting voices to influence public debate and policy [6] [4]. The New York Times and other outlets report that disinformation and information campaigns continue to shape public impressions even as the scientific record strengthens [7].
5. Historical context: the minority that dissented
Empirical archives show pockets of scientists and commentators who have questioned mainstream climate findings for decades; publications and committees at times catalogued hundreds of “skeptics” with a range of views, from attribution doubts to full denial [5]. But authoritative observers like Stefan Rahmstorf have noted that scientist-skeptics increasingly accept that warming is happening and focus on attribution and responses rather than denying temperature rise itself [4] [5].
6. Limits, disagreements and what sources don’t say
The sources report strong consensus on human-caused warming but also document disagreements about impacts, models, and policy responses [1] [3]. Available sources do not provide a recent, head-count-style audit that enumerates precisely how many people who list their occupation as “climatologist” now describe themselves as climate-change deniers; nor do they offer a single definitive roster of professional climatologists classified by belief. Where large counts appear (e.g., 1,107 signatories), close inspection shows few true climatologists among them [2].
7. Takeaway for readers and journalists
When someone claims “many climatologists deny climate change,” demand two things: clarity about what “deny” means, and evidence that signatories are bona fide, actively publishing climatologists. The best-available authoritative summaries and surveys — and NASA’s cited 97% figure — show that among actively publishing climate scientists the consensus on human-caused warming is overwhelming [1]. Reporting and fact-checking (Euronews) show that tall lists often do not substantiate the political claim that large numbers of climatologists reject the science [2].
Limitations: this analysis relies only on the supplied sources and therefore cannot incorporate studies or polls published elsewhere after those documents.