Is volcanism on the raise around the world?
Executive summary
Global monitoring shows dozens of volcanoes typically erupting at any time—about 40–50 “continuing” eruptions with roughly 20 active on a given day—so visible activity is not unprecedented [1] [2]. Major scientific catalogues and recent fact-checking find no evidence that global volcanic activity is increasing overall; apparent rises are largely explained by better reporting, population spread and monitoring, though climate change may raise certain localized volcanic hazards [3] [4] [5].
1. What the long-term data actually say: no clear global increase
The Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program, which compiles eruption records back to 1968, states it has “not seen any evidence that volcanic activity is actually increasing,” noting that counts of eruptions are dominated by reporting changes rather than a real uptick in eruptions [3]. Independent fact checks and news summaries echo that conclusion: dozens of simultaneous eruptions are normal and the current number of continuing eruptions (about 40–50) falls within typical ranges [4] [1] [2].
2. Why people feel like eruptions are rising: reporting, population, and social media
Historical records under‑reported many regions until global trade, exploration and modern communication expanded; the number of documented active volcanoes climbed as a consequence, not necessarily because eruptions increased [3]. Media attention, smartphone video, and rapid social sharing amplify isolated events into global perceptions—an effect emphasized by volcanologists and illustrated in recent coverage of high‑profile eruptions [4] [6].
3. What “continuing” vs. “active” means — the numbers behind headlines
The GVP’s operational reporting shows about 44 volcanoes listed in “continuing eruption” status as of a September 2025 snapshot, though only roughly 20 of those will be erupting on any particular day; the program typically reports 40–50 continuing eruptions overall [1] [2]. Weekly and daily reports are preliminary and intended for rapid situational awareness rather than long‑term trend analysis [2] [7].
4. Climate links: not a global spike yet, but localized hazard rises likely
Multiple studies and reviews warn that climate change can alter volcanic hazards in specific ways. For example, heavier rainfall driven by warming is projected to increase rainfall‑related volcanic hazards (dome explosions, flank collapse) at more than 700 volcanoes worldwide [5]. Paleoclimate and geologic studies show volcanism rose two‑ to sixfold after the last ice age in some regions, suggesting deglaciation can trigger more eruptions—but that mechanism plays out unevenly and doesn’t mean a simultaneous global surge today [8] [9].
5. Different perspectives among experts and what they emphasize
Volcanology authorities focus on the stable frequency of large, widely documented eruptions as the best indicator of long‑term trends; the GVP argues large eruption counts have been roughly constant over centuries, supporting the view of no global increase [3]. Climate and geologic researchers, by contrast, highlight mechanisms by which warming (ice melt, rainfall change) could increase certain types of volcanic activity or hazards regionally—meaning the global aggregate can remain steady while risks change locally [5] [9].
6. Practical takeaway for readers and policymakers
Treat recent clusters of eruptions as normal variability within a long‑running baseline: existing global catalogues show no net increase in eruptions attributable to a changing Earth system to date [3] [4]. Simultaneously, plan for greater localized volcanic risk where climate‑driven changes—glacier retreat or heavier rainfall—can destabilize volcanoes and produce more frequent secondary hazards; research points to hundreds of volcanoes where such effects could intensify [5] [8].
Limitations: available sources summarize expert consensus and modelling but do not provide a definitive, single global time series proving future trends; detailed regional forecasts and attribution studies remain active research areas [3] [5].