Which major peer-reviewed studies show trends in global temperature, sea level, and greenhouse gases?
Executive summary
A broad, peer‑reviewed literature consistently documents rising global temperatures, increasing concentrations of long‑lived greenhouse gases, and accelerating sea‑level rise, with major syntheses including the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report and updated indicator papers that compile monitoring datasets [1] [2]. Independent observational and modeling studies — from NOAA and national agencies to specialty journals — corroborate these trends while highlighting key uncertainties about regional patterns, climate sensitivity, and ice‑sheet dynamics that shape future sea level projections [3] [4] [5].
1. What the big assessments say about temperature: IPCC and national syntheses
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6 Synthesis) concludes that human activities, chiefly greenhouse‑gas emissions, have unequivocally caused global warming, estimating a ~1.1°C increase in global surface temperature above 1850–1900 for 2011–2020, a finding echoed by NOAA’s synthesis and national temperature analyses that put recent decades as the warmest on record [1] [3]. These multi‑author, peer‑reviewed assessments integrate observational records, attribution studies, and models to show the long‑term upward trend and that warming has accelerated since about 1970, although short‑term regional variability and patterned ocean changes complicate interpretation [6] [5].
2. Peer‑reviewed observational compilations and indicator updates for greenhouse gases
Annual and multi‑year indicator papers aggregate atmospheric monitoring data to demonstrate rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and many fluorinated gases; the 2024 ESSD “Indicators of Global Climate Change” update compiles monitoring datasets and reports increases in many greenhouse gases and record‑high aggregated emissions over the recent decade [2]. Long‑running peer‑reviewed series such as the State of the Climate supplements and NOAA/NESDIS reports similarly document record atmospheric CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide in 2020 and beyond, confirming the observational basis for rising radiative forcing [7] [3].
3. Sea‑level rise: observational studies and syntheses
Multiple peer‑reviewed studies and reviews synthesize tide‑gauge and satellite altimetry records to show a long‑term global mean sea‑level rise that accelerated during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, with satellite era rates higher than earlier decades; Church and White and successors are repeatedly cited across reviews as foundational analyses of 20th‑century trends [8]. NOAA’s sea‑level summaries and the IPCC link this rise to thermal expansion and ice melt, emphasize regional variability, and stress that future sea‑level commitments are strongly dependent on cumulative GHG emissions and ice‑sheet behavior [4] [1].
4. Modeling studies linking emissions to long‑term sea‑level commitment
Recent peer‑reviewed modeling work quantifies multi‑century sea‑level commitments tied to cumulative greenhouse‑gas emissions, showing that even near‑term emissions lock in substantial long‑term rise; Nature Climate Change and related studies use scenario frameworks (SSPs) to isolate contributions of historical and near‑term GHGs to future sea levels and stress that committed rise extends centuries [9]. Analyses tracing emissions from major fossil producers to temperature and sea‑level effects provide further peer‑reviewed attribution of responsibility, though these modeling approaches carry assumptions about carbon cycles and ice dynamics that affect magnitudes [10] [11].
5. Where scientists disagree or flag uncertainty
Peer‑reviewed work identifies important uncertainties: the pattern of sea‑surface temperature changes biases historical constraints on climate sensitivity, so high equilibrium sensitivities remain possible (PNAS), and projections of ice‑sheet collapse and rapid sea‑level jumps remain an area of active study and uncertainty that drives wide ranges in end‑century estimates [5] [4]. Indicator updates note that while aggregated GHG emissions are at all‑time highs and many gases continue to climb, some ozone‑depleting gases have declined following policy action — an example of successful mitigation within the broader upward trajectory of warming agents [2] [6].
6. The consensus and the caveats for policymakers and the public
The peer‑reviewed synthesis literature converges on the core facts: greenhouse gases are at record levels, global mean surface temperature has risen about a degree Celsius since preindustrial times, and sea level is rising and accelerating; these are documented across IPCC assessments, NOAA/NESDIS reports, indicator compilations, and specialist journals [1] [3] [2] [8]. At the same time, the literature explicitly warns that regional impacts, the pace of ice‑sheet response, and exact climate sensitivity values introduce important policy‑relevant uncertainties that make near‑term emissions choices consequential for multi‑century outcomes [9] [5] [4].