Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What is the scientific consensus on climate change and its causes?
Executive summary
The scientific consensus is that the Earth is warming and the dominant cause is human emissions of greenhouse gases—primarily carbon dioxide from burning oil, gas and coal and from cement manufacture—with global fossil CO2 emissions projected at about 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025 (Global Carbon Project / NYT) and multiple global assessments finding accelerating impacts and near‑term risks of breaching 1.5°C [1] [2] [3]. Independent reviews and explainer pieces summarize decades of evidence tying greenhouse‑gas emissions to warming and link human influence to many observed extreme events [4] [5].
1. What scientists agree on: warming is happening and people are the main cause
Atmospheric and ocean observations, theory and models have “conclusively traced” global warming to human greenhouse‑gas emissions since the 1970s; mainstream science frames rising greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning and cement production as the largest contributors to recent warming [4] [1]. International science bodies and syntheses at COP30 and in recent state‑of‑climate reports describe accelerating warming, faster sea‑level rise and mounting evidence that impacts already match expectations from human‑driven climate change [5] [6].
2. How robust is the evidence? Multiple lines of proof
Scientists use measurements (temperature records, atmospheric CO2), process understanding (the greenhouse effect), and computer models that reproduce past and present climate to attribute warming to humans; these independent methods converge, which experts call a robust, multi‑strand confirmation of human causation [4]. Major year‑to‑year carbon accounting and sink studies—like the 2025 Global Carbon Budget—document the scale of emissions and the role of land and ocean sinks, reinforcing attribution of recent warming to human emissions [2].
3. What counts as “greenhouse gases” and who emits them
The consensus highlights CO2 from burning oil, gas and coal and from cement manufacture as the dominant human forcing; land‑use change and other gases also matter but are smaller contributors to total CO2 in 2025, with fossil fuel emissions on track to record highs in many reports [1] [2]. UN and WHO summaries repeat that human activities—primarily fossil fuel combustion—are the main driver of contemporary climate change [7] [8].
4. Impacts already observed and near‑term risks
Recent reporting and scientific syntheses show accelerating impacts: faster global temperature increases with record years in 2023–24, worsening wildfires, glacier retreat, sea‑level rise and growing evidence of tipping risks such as coral collapse and Antarctic ice instability [6] [9]. The World Meteorological Organization and other assessments warn that the world is likely to breach 1.5°C in the next five years under current trajectories, emphasizing the immediacy of the risk [3].
5. Where scientists disagree or note uncertainty
Experts do not dispute the basic attribution, but they highlight uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of some feedbacks—like carbon‑cycle responses (permafrost melt, Amazon dieback) and cloud or albedo changes—that could accelerate warming beyond central estimates [10] [5]. Reports note that climate models are continually updated as new processes (for example, evolving cloud feedbacks or reduced aerosol “masking”) change projections; that means some recent warming has exceeded many earlier model expectations [5].
6. Policy and public takeaway: consensus on cause, debate on response
Science converges on cause and consequences; policy debates focus on how quickly and equitably to cut emissions, adapt infrastructure, and manage transitions. Reports from the UN and WHO frame climate action as urgent for health and development, while global carbon budgets and emissions tracking show current national plans fall short of stabilizing warming [11] [8] [2].
7. Misinformation and how reporting addresses it
Contemporary mainstream reporting and scientific syntheses consistently present the human‑cause conclusion; recent COP30 coverage and academic reviews stress that denial of human causation is increasingly unsupported by the evidence [12] [6]. Where uncertainty exists—about specific feedbacks, regional impacts, or how fast particular tipping points might occur—scientists and journalists note those as active research areas rather than as grounds to reject the core consensus [10] [5].
8. Bottom line for readers
Available sources present a clear, multi‑decade scientific consensus: the planet is warming; the primary driver is human greenhouse‑gas emissions from fossil fuels and cement; and impacts are accelerating with real risks in the near term, including likely exceedance of 1.5°C without stronger mitigation [4] [1] [3]. The remaining scientific debates concern the pace and scale of feedbacks and impacts, which shape—but do not overturn—the central conclusion that human activity is the dominant cause [10] [5].