IS ISLAMIST TERRORISM ON THE RISE
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Executive summary
Islamist terrorism shows both revival in lethality and geographic spread in 2024–2025: the Global Terrorism Index finds Islamic State remained the deadliest group in 2025, causing 1,805 deaths and operating in 22 countries [1]. Multiple analysts and agencies — ICCT, FPRI, Europol-linked reporting and UN briefings — report heightened activity by IS affiliates (notably IS‑Khorasan), rising arrests and investigations in Europe, and concentrated violence in Africa’s Sahel [2] [3] [4] [5] [1].
1. Islamist groups have shifted tactics and spread geographically
After the territorial defeat of the so‑called caliphate, Islamic State has reorganised into a network of regional affiliates that act more autonomously; UN and ICCT reporting single out IS‑Khorasan and African provinces as driving the group’s renewed capacity to carry out complex and transnational attacks [2] [5]. The Global Terrorism Index documents IS activity across 22 countries in 2025 and attributes 1,805 deaths to the organisation that year, with heavy activity in Syria and the DRC [1].
2. Europe and the West see rising arrests, plots and lone-actor dangers
European counter‑terrorism bodies and private analysts note an uptick in investigations and foiled plots: Europol‑linked figures show increasing Islamist arrests in EU states and commentators flag France and Germany as particular hotspots for rudimentary attacks [4]. French authorities opened an unprecedented caseload in 2024 and continued significant new investigations into jihadi activity in 2025, including cases involving minors [6] [4].
3. The U.S. picture: rare but still lethal incidents and changing lethality
U.S. analysis finds that jihadist attacks remain relatively infrequent compared with past peaks, but lethal incidents continue to occur and trends in lethality have shifted since ISIS’s territorial defeat; CSIS counted eight jihadist attacks and ten disrupted plots in the U.S. from 2020 to New Year’s Day 2025, and its historical dataset records 140 reported jihadist attacks or plots in the U.S. from 1994 through early 2025 [7]. Analysts warn that online radicalisation and “lone‑wolf” actors pose an identification challenge [7] [3].
4. Africa and the Sahel are the epicentres of rising violence
UN and think‑tank reporting emphasise Africa — especially the Sahel, plus pockets in Syria and the DRC — as where Islamist affiliates have grown strongest and most lethal. The UN’s Office of Counter‑Terrorism described IS activity as “dynamic and diverse” with Africa currently experiencing the highest levels of ISIL‑linked activity [5]. The GTI also highlights large shares of IS activity and deaths in Syria and DRC [1].
5. Data show both concentration and change — not uniform global surge
Longer‑term datasets show concentration of Islamist violence in a handful of groups and countries: Wikipedia’s synthesis reports five groups caused the bulk of Islamist terrorist deaths from 1979 to April 2024 [8]. At the same time, recent years show changing patterns — fewer mass casualty attacks in some Western countries but increased transnational activity by affiliates and more frequent low‑sophistication attacks or plots in Europe [8] [4].
6. Drivers: conflict, online radicalisation and political polarisation
Reporting links rises to regional conflicts (e.g., Afghanistan, Middle East wars), IS exploitation of local grievances, online recruitment that accelerates radicalisation of youth, and political polarisation that can amplify other extremist movements — all cited by FPRI, ICCT, and security forecasters [2] [3] [4]. Europol‑style data showing arrested suspects and national prosecutor statistics in France indicate younger recruits and minors appearing in cases [6] [4].
7. Competing interpretations and limitations in the record
Analysts disagree on the scale and trajectory. Some frame the trend as a worrying resurgence driven by affiliates and lone actors (ICCT, FPRI, GTI) while other security briefs note reduced lethality in some contexts since ISIS’s territorial defeat (CSIS) — meaning the threat is evolving rather than uniformly increasing [2] [3] [7] [1]. National statistics (e.g., France’s PNAT caseload) and NGO indices capture different slices of the threat; therefore comparisons across sources require caution [6] [1].
8. What to watch next — indicators of escalation or containment
Key metrics to monitor are attack lethality and geographic diffusion (GTI and ICCT highlight deaths and country counts), rates of arrests versus successful attacks in Europe (Europol/TE‑SAT referenced by analysts), youth radicalisation indicators in national prosecutor files, and IS‑affiliate propaganda and recruitment output [1] [4] [6] [2]. Available sources do not mention specific intelligence assessments beyond these public reports and indexes.
Conclusion: Islamist terrorism is not uniformly “on the rise” everywhere, but reputable sources show a clear resurgence in IS‑linked lethality and geographic reach in 2024–2025, rising investigation caseloads in Europe, and dangerous growth in Africa and IS‑Khorasan — a pattern that amounts to a renewed and evolving global threat rather than a simple return to past peaks [1] [2] [4] [5].