How did the 2021 census change the map of Muslim populations across London boroughs?
Executive summary
The 2021 census recorded a sharp increase in London’s Muslim population — about 1.32 million people, or roughly 15% of the capital — up by some 306,000 from 2011, reshaping the religious map at borough level and reinforcing long-standing concentrations in east and north London [1] [2]. The change is best understood as both growth in absolute numbers across the city and a persistence of high localised concentrations in boroughs such as Tower Hamlets, Newham and Redbridge, with important social and policy consequences [3] [4].
1. Citywide totals and the scale of change
London’s Muslim population in 2021 stood at approximately 1.32 million, representing 15% of Greater London and accounting for an increase of about 306,000 people and a 2.6 percentage‑point rise since 2011, according to the official Census release summarised by London’s City Intelligence [1] [2]. This mirrors national trends captured by ONS and sector analyses showing that Muslims became the second-largest faith group in England and Wales and that the community expanded significantly over the decade [5] [3].
2. Where the map changed least — entrenched concentrations
The census largely confirmed pre-existing geographic patterns: Tower Hamlets remained the borough with the highest Muslim share (around 40%), and Newham and Redbridge also recorded very large Muslim majorities or pluralities in parts of the boroughs, consolidating east and northeast London as continuity zones for Muslim settlement [3] [4]. Tower Hamlets and Newham also rank among the local authorities with the largest absolute Muslim populations in England and Wales — Tower Hamlets with roughly 124,000 and Newham similarly large — underscoring both percentage and numeric prominence [6].
3. Where the map changed most — dispersion and growth across boroughs
While concentrations persisted, the 2021 data indicate growing dispersion: Muslims are not only more numerous but increasingly present across more boroughs beyond the traditional east London clusters, with high shares also recorded in boroughs such as Brent and parts of north London like Barnet and Enfield where diverse Muslim-origin communities (Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Somali, Turkish) have long settled [2] [7]. The Muslim Council of Britain and analytical briefs note that Muslim communities now spread across a wider set of local authorities, changing local religious demography beyond established enclaves [6] [8].
4. Demographic drivers behind the map change
The shift is driven not principally by a sudden migration surge but by demographic momentum: a younger age profile among Muslims (about a third under 16) and natural growth alongside migration have increased both numbers and the proportion of Muslims in many boroughs, a pattern the Muslim Census project and ONS materials flag as central to the 2011–2021 change [3] [5]. This youthful tilt implies that areas with larger Muslim communities will sustain or increase their shares as younger cohorts enter adulthood and household formation.
5. Social, political and planning implications
The new map has practical consequences: analyses point to high concentrations of Muslims in some of the most deprived local authority districts, amplifying questions about service provision, education, employment, and representation in local decision-making as Muslim populations grow numerically and politically in certain wards [6] [1]. Local authorities, faith groups and policymakers will need to reconcile growing religious diversity with spatial inequalities highlighted by census tabulations.
6. Caveats, alternative interpretations and data limits
Interpretation requires caution: the religion question was optional (response rates improved to roughly 94%), and analysts note differences in how people report identity over time, which can affect comparisons [3]. Available sources emphasise increases and dispersion but do not map every ward-level shift in this reporting; further granular ONS ward and output-area data would be necessary to plot micro‑level changes or to attribute local shifts to particular migration streams or housing dynamics [1] [7].