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What did the 2021 UK Census report for Muslims in London and how has population growth changed since 2021?
Executive summary
The 2021 UK Census recorded 1,318,755 Muslims in Greater London, equal to 15.0% of London’s population, and showed an increase from 12.6% in 2011; Islam was the city’s second-largest religion after Christianity [1] [2]. There is no direct, official national dataset in the provided material that measures change in the Muslim population in London after 21 March 2021, so any statements about growth since 2021 rely on indirect indicators, constituency-level increases reported between 2011 and 2021, and extrapolations noted in commentary and advocacy summaries [2] [3] [4].
1. What the census actually reported for London — clear headline figures that matter
The 2021 Census provides a clear snapshot: London had 1,318,755 people who identified as Muslim, comprising 15.0% of the Greater London population, up from 12.6% in 2011 — establishing Islam as the city’s second-largest religion after Christianity [1] [2]. The census also highlights London’s status as the most religiously diverse English region, with sizable Hindu and other faith communities alongside the Muslim population; Tower Hamlets featured the highest local share, at 39.9% Muslim [2]. These figures are based on self-identified religion from Census Day, 21 March 2021, and provide a reliable baseline for demographic analysis, planning and policy, and for comparing constituency-level changes reported by the House of Commons Library and other compendia [2] [3].
2. How 2021 compares with 2011 — a decade of growth that reshaped local profiles
Between 2011 and 2021 the Muslim proportion of London’s population rose from 12.6% to 15.0%, reflecting both absolute growth and geographic concentration in specific boroughs such as Tower Hamlets, Newham and Redbridge [2] [1]. Nationally, the Muslim population in England and Wales increased from 2.7 million (4.9%) in 2011 to 3.9 million (6.5%) in 2021, and Muslims are demographically younger — median age around 27 compared with the overall population — which affects future growth through higher birth rates and younger household composition [2] [5]. Constituency-level materials note that every London constituency in the House of Commons Library assessment showed increases in Muslim share since 2011, illustrating consistent decade-long growth across the capital, though growth rates vary sharply by area [3] [4].
3. Why we cannot state post-2021 growth with census certainty — the data gap
All provided sources emphasize that the 2021 Census is a fixed snapshot and none supply an authoritative post-2021 population estimate for Muslims in London; the supplied analyses explicitly note the absence of direct updates since Census Day [2] [3] [6]. Organizations and summaries published later (2024–2025 dates in the analyses) reiterate the baseline but either stop at the census or offer context — for example, socio-economic indicators (deprivation, employment) and geographic concentration — rather than new headcounts [6] [4]. Consequently, claims about growth since 2021 require new surveys, administrative data or ONS mid-year estimates by religion (not present in the supplied material); without those, assertions of post-2021 increases remain plausible but unverified within these sources [2] [6].
4. Indirect signs and demographic dynamics that point to likely trends after 2021
While no direct post-2021 counts are in the dataset, the materials note structural factors that make further Muslim population growth plausible: younger median age, higher shares living in larger households, and immigration patterns concentrated in London boroughs, all create momentum for continued expansion even absent new census enumeration [5] [1]. Coverage also highlights socio-economic clustering — substantial proportions of Muslims live in more deprived areas and areas of higher unemployment — which affects household composition and internal mobility and can influence local population trajectories [6]. These indicators point to likely continued growth in some boroughs, but they do not quantify the rate or provide a city-wide post-2021 total within the provided sources [5] [6].
5. What the different sources emphasize and what that reveals about agendas
Census-focused government releases and the House of Commons Library prioritize measurement and constituency-level comparison, stressing reliable counts and decade-on-decade change [2] [3]. Advocacy and community summaries emphasize socio-economic inequality, age profile and vulnerability — highlighting needs for services and anti‑discrimination measures [6] [1]. These differing emphases can reflect stakeholder agendas: statistical neutrality versus policy advocacy. The analytical materials included here occasionally conflate census snapshots with broader community narratives; readers should distinguish the hard counts (census figures) from interpretive claims about causes and current trends, which require supplementary data [1] [6].
6. Bottom line — what you can reliably say and what remains uncertain
You can reliably state that the 2021 Census recorded 1,318,755 Muslims in Greater London (15.0%), up from 12.6% in 2011, with notable local concentrations (Tower Hamlets ~39.9%) and a young demographic profile (median age ~27 for Muslims) [1] [2] [5]. What remains uncertain in the supplied materials is how the Muslim population in London changed after Census Day 2021; no post‑2021 headcounts or ONS religion-based mid-year estimates are present here, so any claim about growth since 2021 is inferential, not directly evidenced by these sources [2] [6]. For authoritative post‑2021 figures you will need ONS mid-year releases, local authority population estimates by religion, or new survey data beyond the sources given.