Fact check: What role does age of marriage play in reaching a 50th wedding anniversary?

1. Summary of the results

The relationship between age of marriage and reaching a 50th wedding anniversary presents mixed evidence with no clear consensus from the available research.

Statistical Context: Among older adults who are currently married, just under half (46.9%) were in marriages of 50 years or more ^[1]. This suggests that reaching a golden anniversary is achievable but not guaranteed, regardless of marriage age.

Conflicting Research on Age Effects: The evidence presents contradictory findings:

• Some sources suggest that couples who marry earlier may be more likely to reach their 50th anniversary simply due to having more time together, as longer marriages show decreased divorce likelihood over time ^[2]
• However, recent research challenges traditional assumptions, finding little evidence to support the idea that early marriages are at greater risk for breakup or have lower marital quality ^[3]

Alternative Predictors: The analyses reveal that other factors may be stronger predictors of marital longevity than age at marriage, including the presence of children ^[3] and relationship circumstances such as cohabitation patterns before marriage ^{[4] [5]}.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Demographic Trends: The original question overlooks significant changing divorce patterns by age group. Divorce rates have actually decreased for younger couples while increasing for those aged 45 and older ^[6], suggesting that age at marriage may not be the primary determinant of marital success.

"Gray Divorce" Phenomenon: A crucial missing element is the rising trend of "gray divorce" among couples over 50 ^[7]. This indicates that even couples who have been married for decades are increasingly choosing to divorce, which directly impacts the likelihood of reaching a 50th anniversary regardless of their original marriage age.

Religious and Cultural Factors: The analyses reveal that religious couples who marry in their twenties without cohabiting first have the lowest odds of divorce ^[4]. This suggests that religious commitment and pre-marital cohabitation patterns may be more significant factors than age alone.

Cohabitation Impact: Research shows that living together before engagement can decrease a couple's odds of successful marriage, with the timing of when couples clarify their intentions to marry being crucial ^[5]. The concept of "sliding" into cohabitation versus making deliberate decisions about marriage appears more predictive than age.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question contains an implicit assumption that age of marriage is a significant factor in reaching a 50th wedding anniversary, when the evidence suggests this relationship is far more complex and potentially less important than commonly believed.

Oversimplification: The question reduces marital longevity to a single variable (age at marriage) when research indicates that multiple factors such as religious commitment, cohabitation patterns, presence of children, and changing social norms play more substantial roles ^{[3] [4] [5] [7]}.

Outdated Social Wisdom: The question may perpetuate what researchers call "outdated social wisdom" about early marriage being inherently risky ^[3]. Modern research suggests that traditional assumptions about optimal marriage age may not reflect current realities.

Missing Consideration of Modern Trends: The question fails to account for contemporary marriage patterns, including the fact that people are marrying later but also experiencing higher rates of later-life divorce, which fundamentally changes the calculation of reaching milestone anniversaries regardless of initial marriage age.