What is the estimated Muslim population in Birmingham in 2025?
Executive summary
Birmingham’s most recent robust count comes from the 2021 Census and local reporting: about 29.9–30% of Birmingham’s residents identified as Muslim in 2021, equal to "more than 341,000" people according to Birmingham Live [1] and 30% as recorded on the Religion in Birmingham page [2]. No provided source gives an official 2025 figure; therefore any 2025 number must be an estimate extrapolated from those 2021 baselines [2] [1].
1. What the official baseline says: the 2021 census and local reporting
The clearest contemporary baseline in the supplied material is the 2021 census-derived reporting that roughly 30% of Birmingham’s population identified as Muslim; Birmingham Live states this as "more than 341,000 Muslims" or 29.9% of the city's population [1], and the Religion in Birmingham page repeats the 30% figure [2]. Those figures are the anchor for any 2025 estimate because they come from formal census data and local reporting tied to that census [2] [1].
2. Why a simple 2025 headcount is not in the sources
None of the provided pages supply an official Muslim population number for 2025. WorldPopulationReview and other population aggregators give differing total-population projections for Birmingham (for example wide urban-agglomeration estimates) but do not translate those directly into a 2025 Muslim headcount in the supplied excerpts [3]. Therefore "estimated Muslim population in 2025" is not stated directly in current reporting we have (available sources do not mention a 2025 Muslim headcount).
3. How you would reasonably project a 2025 estimate from 2021 data
To produce a 2025 estimate you must combine a reliable 2021 Muslim-share (≈29.9–30%) with a 2025 total-population estimate for the same geographic unit. The sources show two complications: (a) different outlets use different population definitions—city/local-authority vs. broader urban agglomeration—and (b) total-population estimates vary widely (for example an urban-agglomeration estimate of ~2.7 million is given by WorldPopulationReview for 2025, which is not comparable to city/local-authority counts) [3]. Any projection must therefore state which population base you use and accept substantial uncertainty [3].
4. Example projections using the sources — two different bases
- Using the local-authority/city baseline implied by the 2021 census: Birmingham Live reports "more than 341,000" Muslims in 2021 (29.9% of the city's population) [1]. If the Muslim share stayed roughly constant and the city population grew modestly, the 2025 Muslim population would be roughly in the mid-300,000s; precise numbers require a chosen 2025 city total not provided here [1].
- Using a broad urban-agglomeration figure would produce a far larger number: WorldPopulationReview lists Birmingham's 2025 urban-agglomeration population at about 2,704,620 [3]. Applying a 30% Muslim share to that agglomeration (not supported by the sources as equivalent to the city share) would yield an implausibly high ~811,000 — but the supplied sources do not assert that the agglomeration has the same religious composition as the local-authority area, so this calculation is speculative and not supported by the provided material [3].
5. Historical context and prior estimates — how counts have changed
Previous ONS-derived estimates and analyses noted Birmingham has had the largest Muslim population outside London in earlier years (estimates like ~234,000 in some reporting and ~280,000 in a 2016 Statista/ONS summary appear in the sources), showing growth over time from earlier estimates to the 2021 census figure of ~341,000 [4] [5] [1]. Those shifting historical estimates illustrate that different methodologies and geographic definitions (local authority vs. adjoining districts) materially affect totals [4] [5].
6. What this means for users seeking a 2025 number — recommended approach
If you need a defensible 2025 estimate, use the 2021 census Muslim share (≈29.9–30%) applied to a clearly defined 2025 population figure for Birmingham City Council’s local-authority area. The provided sources give the Muslim share [2] [1] but do not provide a matching official 2025 city-population figure to plug in, so you must first choose or source that total-population estimate from the relevant authority; otherwise any 2025 Muslim-count you announce will be an extrapolation not present in current reporting (available sources do not mention an official 2025 Muslim population).
7. Competing perspectives and limits in the sources
Sources differ on geography and year: local reporting and Wikipedia cite the 2021 census share and raw count [2] [1]; Statista and earlier ONS-based summaries show different earlier estimates and emphasise methodological differences [5] [6]. WorldPopulationReview’s urban agglomeration population for 2025 is much larger and would dramatically alter extrapolations if used without caution [3]. The explicit limitation in the available reporting is that none gives a 2025 Muslim total for the city authority—so any 2025 figure must be labelled an estimate and be transparent about the population base and methodology (available sources do not mention a 2025 Muslim headcount).
If you want, I can produce two concrete 2025 estimates (city-local-authority and urban-agglomeration) using the 30% share and a user-selected 2025 total-population figure — tell me which population base you prefer or provide a 2025 city-population figure to use.