What are the estimated numbers of undocumented immigrants in California in 2025?
Executive summary
Estimates in 2025 for California’s undocumented population cluster around about 1.8 million people in many reputable analyses and advocacy reports, a figure widely cited as the 2022–2025 baseline (Pew-based estimates cited in the Public Policy Institute of California and other outlets) [1] [2]. Other outlets and compilations project higher 2025 ranges — for example one private statistics site gives 2.3–2.6 million for 2025 — reflecting different methods and updates [3]. Available sources do not present a single official, universally agreed 2025 count; instead estimates vary by methodology and purpose [1] [3] [4].
1. Where the “about 1.8 million” number comes from — mainstream research and policy use
Multiple mainstream reports and think tanks cite a Pew Research–based estimate that roughly 1.8 million immigrants in California were undocumented as of 2022 and continue to use that as the working baseline into 2025 analyses; the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) summarizes this Pew estimate directly in its May 2025 state profile [1]. Policy groups and state-focused analyses also use the ~1.8 million figure when discussing the likely economic and social impacts of federal enforcement changes and deportation scenarios [2].
2. Why other estimates are higher (2.3–2.6 million): different data, different aims
At least one aggregator and private data compilation reports 2025 estimates of 2.3–2.6 million undocumented residents in California [3]. Such higher-range figures typically reflect different inputs or projection methods — for example, assumptions about recent migration flows, border apprehensions, undercount adjustment, or growth since 2022. The presence of higher estimates underscores that methodology and the time-window used for projection materially change outcomes [3].
3. Academic and policy-model variance: methodology matters
The Migration Policy Institute describes state-level unauthorized population estimates that rely on pooled ACS and SIPP data and note how imputation and weighting to national totals produce state estimates; MPI’s approach and similar academic methods can produce numbers that differ from Pew or private aggregators [4]. The key takeaway: whether analysts count visa overstays, include temporary protections (DACA/TPS/parole) or how they adjust census undercounts changes the final tally [4].
4. Why officials and advocates emphasize the estimate they do
Advocates and state officials use the 1.8 million figure to quantify who would be affected by policy shifts and to calculate impacts on Medi‑Cal, taxes, and workforce stability; for instance, California briefs and policy pieces that warn of deportations or enforcement stress reference roughly 1.8 million undocumented residents when describing state-level exposure [2] [1]. Conversely, groups or outlets highlighting larger totals may be seeking to emphasize scale for policy urgency or to capture post‑2022 migration increases [3].
5. Local estimates and county work: Los Angeles as an example
Local research centers such as USC’s Equity Research Institute and county-specific studies are producing 2025 data estimates for Los Angeles County and other jurisdictions, reflecting local labor markets and enforcement dynamics; these local estimates matter for city/county planning and for understanding how statewide totals distribute geographically [5]. Local reporting and opinion pieces also document behavioral responses (e.g., hiding or withdrawing from formal systems) that make precise counting harder [6].
6. What’s reliably known and what is uncertain
Reliable: multiple credible analyses cite ~1.8 million undocumented immigrants in California as the recent baseline and use it in 2025 policy discussions [1] [2]. Uncertain: exact 2025 totals are not singularly established in the available reporting — some private aggregators report 2.3–2.6 million, and academic methods can differ depending on inclusion criteria for groups like DACA/TPS/parole holders [3] [4]. Available sources do not mention a single official 2025 census‑era count that resolves these differences.
7. How to interpret the range for policy debates
When policymakers or media cite a number, check the source’s method: is it a Pew-derived baseline carried forward, an academic imputation from ACS/SIPP, or a private projection with different assumptions? Each choice signals an intent: research centers generally prioritize consistency and reproducibility, advocacy groups emphasize impact, and some private sites may use more recent but less transparent growth assumptions [1] [4] [3]. That context matters when numbers are used to argue for enforcement, services, or budget choices [2].
If you want, I can compile the exact language and methodological notes from each cited source side-by-side so you can see precisely why the figures diverge.