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Fact check: How much did California's population change between the 2020 census and 2023?
Executive Summary
California’s population increased between the 2020 decennial census and 2023, with state estimates showing a net gain of about 67,000 residents in 2023 and a 2023 year-end population around 39.13 million; this marked the first annual increase since 2019 and ended a three‑year decline [1] [2]. Subsequent reporting and later state updates through 2024–2025 show continued growth into 2024 and 2025, but the specific question — change from the 2020 census through 2023 — is best answered by the 2023 state estimate of a +67,000 net increase versus the 2020 baseline [1].
1. Why the simple question generates multiple figures — the census baseline versus state estimates
The 2020 decennial census provides an official baseline, but annual population change is typically reported by the California Department of Finance and other statistical compilations; those annual estimates reported a net gain of roughly 67,000 residents in 2023, corresponding to a 0.17% increase for that year and yielding a 2023 resident population near 39.13 million [2] [1]. These state estimates reflect components not captured by the static 2020 census snapshot: legal international immigration, lower mortality following the peak pandemic years, and reduced out‑migration. The distinction between the 2020 census count and the Department of Finance’s mid‑year or January 1 estimates is important because annual estimates incorporate births, deaths, domestic migration, and international migration since 2020 and thus produce different totals than the decennial count [1] [3].
2. What the official 2023 change number means in plain terms
When officials say California “grew by just over 67,000 people in 2023,” they mean the state experienced a net increase after accounting for births, deaths, and migration over the course of the year, reversing a three‑year decline that followed pandemic disruptions [1] [3]. News agencies and state releases repeated this same figure and framed it as a recovery: reporters cited immigration returning to stronger levels and fewer pandemic‑era deaths as principal drivers of the 2023 uptick [3] [2]. The 67,000 figure is not a count of newcomers alone but the net result of inflows and outflows, and it should be read as an annual change rather than the cumulative difference between 2020 and the end of 2023 without specification of intermediate years [1].
3. Cross‑checks and consistency across reporting sources
Multiple independent outlets and the Department of Finance converged on the +67,000 2023 estimate and the approximately 39.13 million total population for 2023, lending consistency to the claim [1] [2]. Reuters and the Associated Press reported the same net gain and cited immigration as a key contributor; the state’s own April 2024 release recorded that same change and framed it as halting the prior decline [3] [1]. Later state releases through 2024 and 2025 show continued growth into 2024 (+108,000 in 2024 and a 2025 January 1 estimate of roughly 39.53 million), indicating the 2023 gain was not an isolated blip but the start of a multi‑year rebound — however, those later numbers are beyond the narrow 2020–2023 window and should not be conflated with the 2023 change figure [4].
4. What drove the 2023 turnaround and what remains uncertain
Analysts and state officials attribute the 2023 net increase chiefly to a rebound in legal international immigration, reductions in excess mortality as the pandemic’s worst years abated, and less out‑migration from California [1] [2]. The Department of Finance also points to demographic shifts like rising K–8 enrollment and growth in the 65‑and‑older population as components of longer‑term trends, though those specifics are part of broader demographic change rather than the immediate 2023 net‑gain calculation [4]. Uncertainties remain about the persistence of trends: migration flows can reverse with economic shifts, and annual estimates are revised; therefore, while the 67,000 figure is the accepted 2023 measure, it should be interpreted as an estimate subject to routine statistical revision [3].
5. Bottom line for the question asked: how much did population change 2020→2023
Answering strictly for the period from the 2020 census through the end of 2023, the clearest, corroborated state estimate is that California returned to growth in 2023 with a net increase of about 67,000 people that year, bringing the state population to roughly 39.13 million by the 2023 estimate; that annual gain is the key documented change within the 2020–2023 span reported by state and national media [1] [2]. Reports that cite later increases (for 2024 and the January 1, 2025 total) document continued growth but address years after 2023 and therefore do not change the specific 2020–2023 comparison [4].