Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
California undocumented population
Executive summary
California’s undocumented population is estimated differently across reputable sources: recent Pew and PPIC reporting cites about 1.8–1.85 million undocumented residents in 2021–2022 [1] [2], while Department of Homeland Security and some compilations put the state nearer to 2.6 million in 2022 [3] [4]. National estimates also vary (roughly 10.5–11.4 million historically), and changes in methodology, dates, and inclusion of people with temporary protections account for much of the disagreement [5] [2].
1. Why the counts differ: competing methods and dates
Estimates diverge because organizations use different data sets, definitions and benchmark years. The Migration Policy Institute and DHS-based tallies lean on administrative records and ACS imputations to place California’s unauthorized count as high as 2.6 million in 2022 [5] [3]. Pew Research Center and PPIC report lower figures — about 1.8–1.85 million undocumented in 2021–2022 — using their own demographic models and Census surveys; Pew also notes its 2021 U.S. unauthorized total at 10.5 million [1] [2]. Timeframes matter: counts before, during and after pandemic-era migration shifts produce different snapshots [2].
2. Magnitude and trends: decline, stability, or recent rise?
Different sources describe different trends. Pew/PPIC reporting finds California’s undocumented population fell from a mid-2000s peak (e.g., 2.8 million in 2007) to roughly 1.8–1.85 million by 2021–2022, signaling a long-term decline in the state even though the national total stabilized near prior highs [1] [2]. By contrast, DHS-based or aggregated counts that put California at 2.6 million in 2022 treat the state as still home to the largest unauthorized population, roughly a quarter of the national total as estimated by DHS in some releases [3]. Analysts explicitly warn that recent border flows and changing origin-country mixes complicate short-term interpretation [2].
3. Who’s being counted — and who might be excluded
Not all sources count the same populations. Pew and PPIC emphasize “unauthorized” or “undocumented” as excluding people with legal protections; some reporting and DHS tallies can include people in ambiguous or temporary statuses depending on methodology [1] [4]. Calibrations often remove legal immigrants using DHS admission records; residual noncitizen populations in surveys are then imputed as unauthorized [5]. Available sources do not mention a single agreed-upon operational definition across all estimates.
4. Geographic and demographic context inside California
Where undocumented people live and work also varies by study: Los Angeles County has historically hosted the largest concentrations (Migration Policy Institute and regional analyses cited by local compilations), and Latin America—especially Mexico—has been the dominant origin region historically, though share from other countries has risen [3] [5]. PPIC highlights that while immigrants make up over a quarter of California’s population, the vast majority are citizens or lawful residents; undocumented people are a subset of a roughly 11 million immigrant population in the state [1].
5. Policy implications: healthcare, labor and visibility
Differences in counts affect policy debates. California expanded Medi‑Cal coverage for some undocumented adults and state studies used population estimates (roughly 2 million undocumented adults referenced in some program analysis) to project impacts of expansions [6]. Economic and workforce analyses warn that undocumented workers hold essential roles in construction, agriculture and care work; advocacy and budget groups cite figures near 1.8 million undocumented to highlight potential consequences of enforcement or large-scale deportation [7] [6].
6. How to read future claims: watch the source and the sample window
When you see a headline about “California has X undocumented immigrants,” check (a) the reporting date and reference year, (b) whether the source is DHS, Pew, PPIC, MPI or a third party, and (c) whether the estimate includes people with temporary protections or only those the source classifies strictly as “unauthorized” [5] [1] [3]. Pew itself cautions that its 2021 numbers don’t reflect the most recent large border crossings, and other outlets note the geographic dispersion of the unauthorized population has increased [2] [8].
Limitations and final note
Estimates in current reporting vary materially; the sources compiled here show a plausible range for California circa 2021–2022 from about 1.8 million (Pew/PPIC) up to 2.6 million (DHS/aggregations) depending on method and timing [1] [3] [2]. For policy or reporting uses, cite the precise source and year rather than a single “official” number [5] [1].