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What percentage of california's population is undocumented
Executive summary
Estimates for California’s undocumented population in recent reporting vary, but most reputable analyses in the set put the number between about 1.8 million and 2.6 million people — which, depending on the denominator used, corresponds roughly to the single‑digit percent range of California’s total population (for example, Pew estimated 1.8 million undocumented Californians in 2022 and PPIC/other sources have cited roughly 2.3–2.6 million in prior years) [1] [2] [3]. National studies also report that California contains one of the largest shares of the U.S. unauthorized population, though methods and year cutoffs produce materially different percentages [4] [5].
1. Why estimates differ: competing methods and years
Researchers use different data sources and imputation methods, and they report for different years, which produces divergent California estimates: the Migration Policy Institute uses pooled American Community Survey and SIPP data weighted to 2023 estimates (MPI profile) while Pew, PPIC, the Center for Migration Studies and state research centers use other combinations of ACS, IRS microdata, and modeling — yielding figures from about 1.8 million (Pew’s 2022 estimate cited by PPIC) up to 2.6 million in some 2025 summaries and third‑party compilations [5] [1] [2] [3].
2. Recent headline numbers cited in the coverage
Several items in the set report headline counts: PPIC notes California has “more than two million undocumented immigrants,” citing state estimates that historically ranged roughly 2.35–2.6 million (2013–2014 vintage) [2]; Pew’s reporting referenced in PPIC and other pieces notes about 1.8 million undocumented Californians for 2022 [1]; some 2025 summaries and nonacademic outlets report 2.3–2.6 million in 2025 or even higher national totals that shift state shares [3] [6]. These differences reflect both real demographic change and methodological variance [3] [6].
3. What share of California’s population does that represent?
Available sources do not present a single uniform percentage framed against the exact same population base for a single year, but they do give anchors: PPIC reports 27% of Californians are foreign born (total immigrant stock) and notes the undocumented are a subset numbering “more than two million” in older estimates [2] [1]. Pew’s 2022 figure (1.8 million undocumented in California) is presented alongside an immigrant population context that suggests the undocumented share of all immigrants has fallen to about 17% (from earlier peaks) — implying low‑to‑mid single digits as a share of the entire state population when spread across California’s ~39 million residents [1]. Exact percent calculations are not standardized across the supplied sources [1] [2].
4. Where California fits in the national picture
All major reports in the set say California remains home to one of the largest undocumented populations in the U.S.; Pew and Axios cite California among six states that contain a majority of the nation’s unauthorized immigrants, even as the national unauthorized population and its geographic distribution have shifted by 2023 [4] [7]. Some outlets reference a record U.S. total (e.g., Migration Policy and other summaries using updated Census adjustments), which affects the implied state share depending on whether you use a higher national total [5] [4].
5. Political and policy context that shapes reporting
Different organizations have different missions and potential agendas: academic and policy institutes (PPIC, MPI, Pew) emphasize methodology and trend analysis [2] [5] [1], whereas advocacy, media, and some private compilations sometimes present rounded or updated headline figures that can amplify short‑term change [3] [6]. Press releases from state officials highlight immigrants’ economic role and may combine lawful and unlawful immigrant figures to argue policy positions [8]. Readers should note these institutional lenses when comparing numbers [8].
6. How to interpret the range and what’s missing
Given the range in the sources — roughly 1.8 million up to 2.6 million for California across different years and methods — the safest interpretation is that undocumented residents make up a significant but single‑digit percentage of California’s total population; exact percentages depend on the year and methodology chosen [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide one standardized percent for a single benchmark year that all groups agree on; therefore any precise percentage statement should cite the specific source and year [5] [1].
7. Practical next steps if you need a single figure
If you want one percentage to cite, decide the year and the source: use Pew or PPIC for conservative, academically framed historical estimates (e.g., Pew’s 1.8 million for 2022 as reported by PPIC), or use MPI/Center for Migration Studies for more recent 2023–2025 modeled estimates — but always note the chosen source and year because the figures differ substantially across methods [1] [5] [2].