How has the total legally resident immigrant population changed since 2010?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
The legally resident (foreign‑born) population of the United States grew substantially from 2010 into the early 2020s — rising from roughly 40 million in the 2010 era to record highs above 50 million by 2023–2025 — but signs of a plateau and a very recent decline appeared in 2025 as departures and removals outpaced arrivals (Pew; MPI; Census) [1] [2] [3]. Different analysts count populations differently (Census ACS vs. CPS vs. MPI tabulations), so year‑to‑year changes and the timing of the reported peak (53.3 million in January 2025 vs. 51.9 million by June 2025) differ across sources [4] [3] [5].
1. Big picture: a decade of growth followed by a mid‑decade wobble
From the 2010s into the early 2020s the U.S. foreign‑born population rose by millions: five‑year ACS estimates show the foreign‑born grew from about 39.8 million (2008–2012) to roughly 45.3 million in 2018–2022, and MPI reported the overall immigrant population reached 47.8 million in 2023 [1] [2]. By January 2025 Pew recorded an historic high of 53.3 million foreign‑born residents — then by mid‑2025 Census‑based measures and Pew’s follow‑up showed a drop to roughly 51.9 million, a decline of more than one million from January to June 2025 [4] [3] [5].
2. Why reported totals vary: surveys, definitions and timing
Different data products measure slightly different things and use different methods. The American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), Migration Policy Institute tabulations, and Pew Research Center analyses each produce totals that diverge because of sampling, reweighting, and whether estimates include unauthorized residents, temporary migrants, or post‑1980 cohorts — all of which affect counts and trends [2] [6] [1]. That explains why MPI cited 47.8 million in 2023 while Pew and others reported a 53.3 million peak in early 2025 and later a mid‑year decline to 51.9 million [2] [4] [3].
3. Recent decline in 2025: departures, enforcement and survey dynamics
Analysts point to a combination of more people leaving or being removed and fewer arrivals as reasons for the mid‑2025 fall in the foreign‑born population. Pew frames the January 2025 peak and the subsequent decline as the first reduction since the 1960s, driven by higher departures and deportations than arrivals in the months after January [4] [3]. The Guardian and other outlets attribute part of the decline to policy shifts and stricter enforcement that changed flows and increased removals [7]. Census‑survey reweighting and differential response rates among immigrants are also flagged as potential contributors to apparent short‑term drops [4] [5].
4. Composition changes matter as much as totals
Even as totals moved upward over the decade, the makeup of the immigrant population changed. MPI and Pew note declining shares from Mexico — the Mexican‑born share fell from about 29% in 2010 to roughly 22–23% by the early 2020s — while the share from other regions rose [2] [7]. Such compositional shifts affect fertility, geographic dispersion, labor‑market participation and policy debates, and they shape how the immigrant population contributes to overall U.S. population change [2] [8].
5. Policy and projection implications: immigration as a driver of growth
Migration Policy Institute highlighted that for 2022–2023 immigration accounted for the entire net U.S. population growth in that period, underscoring how central foreign‑born growth has become to demographic change [2]. The San Francisco Fed and the Congressional Budget Office note that changing net international migration alters labor‑force and fertility forecasts, and that recent lower net migration in 2025 could slow working‑age population growth if sustained [9] [8].
6. Limitations, disagreements and what’s not in the reporting
Sources disagree on exact counts and timing: Pew reports a 53.3 million high then a >1 million decline by June 2025, MPI’s and Census‑ACS series report lower absolute totals in recent years, and CIS offers alternate tabulations focused on post‑1980 arrivals and legal vs. unauthorized splits [4] [2] [6]. Available sources do not mention a single, definitive legally resident (lawful permanent resident only) time series from 2010–2025 that isolates only “legally resident” people separate from naturalized citizens, temporary migrants and unauthorized residents — analysts therefore rely on differing definitions and methods [2] [6] [1].
7. Bottom line for readers: trend yes, exact tally depends on definition
The clear, cited narrative across sources is that the foreign‑born population rose appreciably since 2010 and reached record levels by early 2025 before a noticeable mid‑2025 decline; the magnitude and timing of that change depend on the dataset and definition used [3] [4] [2]. Policymaking and public debate should focus not only on headline totals but also on which populations are being counted (legal permanent residents, naturalized citizens, temporary visa holders, unauthorized migrants) because different definitions yield different stories [6] [1].