How has the percentage of African American children in single-parent households changed over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025?

1. What the question actually asks — two different metrics often conflated

The user’s question can refer to (a) the percent of African American children living in single‑parent households at a point in time, or (b) rates of non‑marital birth (births to unmarried mothers); reporting mixes these metrics, which produces apparently conflicting numbers: scholarly and Census‑derived household measures typically report “children living in single‑parent homes” (e.g., ~48% in one analysis), while narrative pieces sometimes quote non‑marital birth rates (e.g., ~72–77% for certain years), a distinction stressed in the sources ^{[1] [4]}.

2. Baseline in 2015 — high but variable depending on source

Data anchored to the mid‑2010s show a high prevalence of single‑parent arrangements among Black children: an Institute for Family Studies summary of U.S. survey estimates spanning 2015–2019 reports roughly 48% of Black children living with a single parent and 37% with two biological parents ^[1], while other summaries and advocacy sources cite figures around two‑thirds (~66%) or higher for related measures ^{[2] [4]}. These differences arise from sample, definition and whether the measure is “ever lived in” versus “currently living in” a single‑parent household ^{[1] [5]}.

3. What the trend looked like through the early 2020s — stability, not runaway change

Multiple recent snapshots indicate relative stability rather than a sharp upward or downward trend: regional compilations find essentially no change in African American single‑parent shares between 2009–13 and 2019–23 (staying near 57% in one regional profile), and national discussions in 2020–2022 still describe Black children as disproportionately likely to live with single mothers (Census reporting summarized by AFRO and regional profiles) ^{[6] [3]}. Research briefs using CPS/ACS five‑year windows likewise show roughly half of Black children in single‑parent households in the late 2010s, implying modest fluctuation but no dramatic decade‑scale reversal ^{[1] [3]}.

4. Conflicting headline numbers — why 48%, 57%, 66%, 72% and 77% all appear

These divergent headlines come from different denominators and measures: 77% (Wikipedia citation) and 72% (news outlets) are tied to non‑marital birth statistics in some reports, not the share of children who currently live in single‑parent homes; other figures (48% from IFStudies, 57% regional) reflect household composition from ACS/CPS windows or local profiles ^{[4] [1] [6]}. The practical result is that depending on which statistic a reporter highlights, the story can emphasize either high non‑marital birth rates or the share of children living with a single parent — both true on their terms but not interchangeable ^{[4] [1]}.

5. What changed, what didn’t, and what is unknown through 2025

From 2015 through the most recent sources (up to 2023–2024), the evidence points to persistence: African American children remain the racial group most likely to live in single‑parent homes, with regional and national estimates showing either slight movement or stability rather than large swings ^{[6] [3] [1]}. The provided material does not include a definitive national 2025 ACS/CPS summary or a single consistent series that runs 2015→2025, so it is not possible from these sources to state an exact percentage change from 2015 to 2025 ^{[1] [6]}.

6. Interpretation, context and competing narratives

Analysts emphasize structural explanations — historical policies, incarceration, economic strain and changing marriage norms — while some commentators focus on outcomes for children and policy remedies; different agendas (policy advocacy, social commentary, academic analysis) selectively highlight either non‑marital birth rates or living‑arrangement snapshots to support arguments, which explains the fragmented public narrative ^{[2] [1] [6]}. Any rigorous answer must therefore note the metric used, acknowledge regional variation and recognize that the sources provided do not yield a single, definitive national 2015→2025 percentage‑point change ^{[1] [6]}.