How does Chicago's crime rate compare to other major US cities?
Executive summary
Chicago’s violent crime has fallen substantially in 2025 by several measures: an Axios review cited by the City says overall violent crime dropped 22.1% through the first nine months of 2025, and the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) found Chicago’s homicide rate for the first half of 2025 was far below recent peaks and part of a broader mid‑2025 decline across many U.S. cities [1] [2]. At the same time, local research shows sharp neighborhood disparities and rising shooting lethality even as total incidents fall, so comparisons with other large cities depend heavily on which crimes, time windows, and peer cities you choose [3] [4].
1. Chicago’s headline progress: big drops in 2025 but context matters
City officials and multiple reviews report steep declines in violent crime in 2025 — for example, the City’s summary highlights a 22.1% drop in violent crime during the first nine months of 2025 based on an Axios review [1], and CCJ’s mid‑year update documents reductions in homicides, aggravated assaults and gun assaults across the sample of studied cities [2]. Local reporting and the city’s fact sheets emphasize that 2025 builds on recent years of decline and attribute gains to a mix of policing changes and community violence interventions [5] [1].
2. How Chicago stacks up numerically vs. other cities: different lists yield different rankings
Comparisons depend on which cities and which measures you use. FactCheck noted that when analysts expanded the comparison group beyond the largest cities, Chicago ranked 10th of 37 cities with more than 500,000 residents and 15th among 87 cities with more than 250,000 — showing rankings shift with the peer set [4]. CCJ’s mid‑year report also compares 42 consistently reporting cities and shows many cities experienced declines in mid‑2025, so Chicago’s improvements are part of a broader national pattern captured by CCJ [2].
3. Crime type matters: some offenses down more than others
Different crimes are moving in different directions. CCJ’s analysis found broad declines in homicide (17% lower among 30 study cities Jan–Jun 2025 vs. prior measures) and reductions in gun assaults and aggravated assaults in the mid‑2025 window [2]. The City and CCJ also cite big drops in motor vehicle thefts and carjackings in Chicago specifically (motor vehicle theft down 29% in H1 2025 vs H1 2024, per CCJ; carjackings reported down sharply in City releases) [6] [1]. At the same time, some property and drug‑related offenses showed mixed movement in various reports [2] [7].
4. Geographic inequality within Chicago: dramatic neighborhood differences
Even as citywide totals fall, violence remains concentrated. The University of Chicago Crime Lab reports that neighborhoods with the highest homicide rates experience roughly 68 times more homicides than neighborhoods with the lowest rates, underscoring steep local disparities that citywide averages can mask [3]. The Crime Lab also warns shooting lethality increased—victims were more likely to die when shot—even amid declines in overall shootings, a nuance that matters for public safety strategies [3].
5. Who claims credit — competing narratives and critiques
Federal and local actors offered competing explanations for the 2025 declines. The Department of Homeland Security highlighted results tied to Operation Midway Blitz with specific percentage drops, while Chicago officials and independent analysts cautioned those declines were part of preexisting multi‑month trends and broader seasonal patterns [8]. WBEZ reported city leaders pushing back on federal credit claims, noting violent crime had been declining earlier in 2025 and some short‑term post‑intervention declines mirror trends seen in other cities [8] [2].
6. Limitations of the available reporting and what it doesn’t settle
Available sources focus on the first half or first nine months of 2025 and emphasize relative change rather than final calendar‑year rankings; CCJ notes mid‑year comparisons omit the second half of the year [2]. FactCheck also cautions that city rankings shift depending on which comparators and years are used, and that FBI data gaps complicate some direct national comparisons [4]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, single national ranking for Chicago across all crime categories for full 2025 (not found in current reporting).
7. Bottom line for readers: progress plus persistent challenges
Chicago’s data through mid‑2025 show sizable, measurable declines in several violent crimes that place the city among those improving, but rankings vary by comparator and offense [1] [2] [4]. At the same time, researchers warn that concentrated neighborhood violence, increased shooting lethality, and differing trends by offense mean the story is not simply “crime down everywhere” — successes coexist with serious, localized problems that shape everyday safety [3].