Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: How does Chicago's crime rate compare to other major US cities in 2025?
Executive Summary
Chicago’s official data and city officials report notable declines in homicides, shootings, and several other major crimes through the first half of 2025, with police figures citing a roughly 25% drop in homicides and 31% drop in shootings alongside reductions in robberies and vehicle thefts [1] [2]. Those local improvements align with a broader national pattern of falling violent and property crime in many large U.S. cities in early-to-mid 2025, but direct city-to-city rankings and exact comparative rates require caution because the available reports emphasize trends rather than standardized cross-city comparisons [3] [4].
1. Chicago’s Declines Sound Significant — But What Are Officials Emphasizing?
Chicago police and Mayor Johnson have highlighted sharp year-over-year declines in lethal and non-lethal violence, noting April 2025 recorded the fewest homicides since February 2015 and overall downward trends in shootings, aggravated battery, and motor vehicle thefts [2] [1]. City presentations frame these changes as exceeding or matching national improvements, and Mayor Johnson has used the data to argue that Chicago’s reductions outpace broader U.S. trends. Those official emphases can reflect both genuine operational success and political messaging designed to bolster public confidence and mayoral stewardship [5] [1].
2. National Context: Major Cities Also Saw Drops — How Broad Is the Pattern?
Independent and aggregated studies reported a widespread drop in homicides and other crimes across many large cities in 2025, with the Council on Criminal Justice estimating a 17% fall in homicides and notable declines in aggravated assaults and gun assaults during the first half of 2025 [3] [6]. Analysts documented similar national patterns—violent crime down about 14% and property crime down about 16% in early 2025—indicating Chicago’s improvements occurred within a broader national recovery from elevated post-2019 levels rather than representing a unique outlier [7].
3. New York City’s Results: Another Big City Showing Gains
New York City registered significant reductions in most violent crimes in the first quarter of 2025, including historically low shooting counts and one of the lower homicide totals on record, according to NYPD data reporting [4]. Those results reinforce the national pattern and serve as a caution against overstating Chicago’s distinctiveness: multiple large cities—each with different policing strategies, demographics, and local conditions—registered improvements, so absolute comparisons require standardized measures and careful temporal alignment [8] [3].
4. Limits of the Available Comparisons — Why Direct Ranking Is Tricky
The sources largely report trend percentages and city-specific tallies rather than standardized per-capita rates or synchronized reporting windows used for apples-to-apples ranking. City officials and local police departments often use different time frames, categorizations, and data cutoffs, and national aggregators may sample different city sets, which complicates direct comparisons. Because the datasets emphasize declines within each jurisdiction, the materials do not provide the uniform, contemporary per-100,000 metrics needed to definitively say Chicago ranks above or below a specific peer city in 2025 [1] [6].
5. Potential Motivations and Possible Omissions in Messaging
City-level communications and political statements can accentuate favorable short-term trends while downplaying persistent problems in particular neighborhoods or categories (e.g., nonfatal shootings, quality-of-life offenses). Officials may highlight single-month lows or percentage drops that look large from a recent baseline. Independent reports underscore the national trend but often omit granular neighborhood-level persistence or variance, meaning aggregate improvements can mask uneven local experiences within Chicago and other cities [5] [7].
6. Practical Bottom Line for Comparing Chicago to Peers in 2025
Based on the assembled reporting, Chicago experienced substantial declines in homicides and shootings in early-to-mid 2025 and its trend aligns with declines reported in several other major cities, including New York; however, the evidence does not provide a definitive rank placing Chicago above or below specific peer cities because the sources lack standardized, synchronized per-capita comparisons. To establish a precise comparative standing would require a uniform dataset covering the same time windows, crime definitions, and population-adjusted rates across all major U.S. cities [1] [4] [3].
7. What to Watch Next — Data and Questions That Matter
Future clarity will come from updated, standardized releases—city dashboards, FBI or Council on Criminal Justice consolidated datasets, and peer-reviewed analyses—that report per-100,000 rates, multi-year baselines, and sub-city breakdowns. Observers should watch whether declines persist through the full calendar year, whether nonfatal and property crimes follow the same path, and how enforcement, social services, and economic conditions correlate with the changes; the current documents establish a clear downward trend but stop short of exhaustive, comparable rankings [6] [7].