What does research say about crime rates among documented vs undocumented immigrants over the last two decades?
Executive summary
Over the past two decades a growing and increasingly rigorous body of research finds that immigrants — including undocumented immigrants — commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans, with multiple large-scale U.S. studies (notably using Texas arrest records) showing substantially lower offending rates for undocumented people compared with U.S.-born citizens and often lower than legal immigrants [1] [2] [3]. That consensus is not unanimous: some older or context-specific work suggests localized links between immigration and certain types of violence under particular economic or social pressures, and scholars repeatedly warn data gaps and measurement issues temper sweeping conclusions [4] [5] [3].
1. What the strongest U.S. data show: undocumented offending rates are lower
The best-known empirical comparisons exploit Texas’s unique practice of recording immigration status for arrestees; analyses of those comprehensive arrest records from roughly 2012–2018 find undocumented immigrants had substantially lower felony arrest rates — less than half the violent and drug-arrest rates of native-born citizens and far lower property-crime rates — with legal immigrants usually in between the two groups [1] [2] [3]. National and state-level reviews and syntheses published by reputable organizations reach the same basic conclusion: a significant body of research shows immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born population [6] [7].
2. Why researchers trust (and repeat) the Texas findings — and where caution remains
Researchers emphasize the Texas findings because that state’s data uniquely link immigration status to every jailable arrest, reducing a common blind spot in prior studies that could not separate documented from undocumented immigrants [1] [3]. At the same time scholars and agencies caution that few jurisdictions collect comparable data, so generalizing beyond Texas requires care; moreover, arrest and conviction records reflect policing practices, reporting rates, and legal disparities as well as underlying offending, meaning interpretation demands attention to these structural factors [3] [8].
3. Broader patterns, mechanisms, and alternative findings
Beyond arrest tallies, longitudinal and metropolitan studies find that rising immigrant populations often correlate with stable or falling violent and property crime, suggesting mechanisms like strong family networks, selective migration of lower-risk individuals, and community social capital that reduce offending [7] [9]. Yet some literature argues that rapid influxes of low-skilled or unauthorized workers can intensify economic competition and social strain in particular places and periods, producing localized increases in certain violent outcomes — a contested but important counterpoint to blanket claims of uniformly lower risk [4] [9]. International comparisons also show variation: in some countries or subgroups (younger, less-educated males, or irregular migrants) prison representation can be higher, underscoring that context matters [5].
4. How policy and politics shape interpretation
Policymakers and advocates draw different lessons from the same evidence: pro-reform actors cite lower offending rates to argue against broad-brush criminalization and mass deportation, while opponents may highlight isolated incidents or older studies linking immigration to local disorder to justify stricter enforcement [10] [4]. Congressional hearings and public debates have amplified Texas-based findings precisely because they provide measurable comparisons, but experts warn that using arrest-based statistics to predict the effect of sweeping immigration-policy changes on national crime levels is unreliable without accounting for demographic, enforcement, and social-service dynamics [10] [8].
Conclusion: a balanced reading for the last two decades
The preponderance of recent, high-quality research in the United States over roughly the last twenty years points to lower crime and arrest rates among immigrants — including undocumented immigrants — compared with native-born Americans, with robust, replicated evidence from Texas and confirmatory national syntheses [1] [2] [6] [7]. That conclusion is qualified by data limitations outside Texas, by the influence of policing and reporting practices on arrest records, and by contextual studies suggesting localized exceptions where social and economic stressors coincide with immigration shifts [3] [8] [4] [5]. Remaining gaps in national immigration-status data mean continued caution and targeted data collection are essential to refine understanding going forward [3].