What are the crime rates for different migrant groups in England by nationality and age?
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Executive summary
Publicly available analyses find that, overall, foreign nationals in England and Wales are imprisoned or convicted at roughly similar rates to British nationals once the younger age profile of many migrant groups is taken into account (Migration Observatory; Guardian) [1] [2]. The evidence is uneven: some data show over‑representation of non‑UK nationals for particular offence types (notably some sexual offences or organised‑crime‑linked offending), but national‑and‑age disaggregated rates by specific nationality remain limited and contested [3] [4] [5].
1. How headline comparisons look — raw shares and the age problem
Raw counts and shares can imply parity: non‑citizens made up roughly the same share of convictions and the prison population in 2024 as their share of the adult population (around 12%), but this is misleading because migrants tend to be younger and young adults commit more crime; when age and sex are controlled the share of non‑citizens in prison is lower than for British citizens (Migration Observatory; Guardian) [1] [2]. Several academic studies of England and Wales also show that apparent higher arrest or conviction rates for non‑UK nationals disappear once age structure is controlled for (IZA journal) [6].
2. Nationality‑level and offence‑type variation — real but uneven
There is evidence of variation by offence type and by nationality: analyses and FOI compilations have flagged higher shares of foreign nationals among defendants for some sexual offences and drug offences, while other sources report that many nationalities have conviction rates above and below the UK average (Migration Observatory; Guardian; MigrationCentral/Centre for Migration Control) [3] [7] [1]. However, these nationality breakdowns often omit crucial denominators — reliable up‑to‑date counts of each nationality resident in England and Wales — so a high count of convictions for a nationality does not equate to a higher per‑capita crime rate without clearer population data (Migration Observatory; The Guardian) [1] [2].
3. Data gaps that make precise rates by nationality and age elusive
Official statistics record nationality in prison and conviction datasets but the population denominators are uncertain: surveys and the Census undercount recent or irregular migrants and many prisoners have no recorded nationality, meaning that per‑capita rates by nationality are imprecise (Migration Observatory; ONS FOI; Home Office) [1] [8] [5]. The Home Office acknowledges systemic issues in linking detailed offender, sentence and nationality data and plans improved reporting by end‑2025, underlining current limits [5].
4. Contextual drivers: demography, labour markets, deterrence and organised crime
Researchers emphasise mechanisms that shape offence rates beyond nationality: younger demographic profiles, labour market opportunities and legal risks (such as deportation) can all affect offending patterns, and increases in irregular arrivals have been linked to organised immigration crime rather than individual propensity to offend (Migration Observatory; Migration Observatory briefing; NCA) [9] [1] [4]. The National Crime Agency highlights that organised crime groups exploit migration routes, producing concentrated criminal harms linked to smuggling and trafficking, which are distinct from population‑level offending rates [4].
5. Competing narratives and contested analyses
Political and media claims vary: some think‑tanks and press analyses present higher imprisonment or conviction rates for non‑Britons or particular nationalities, but independent commentators and researchers warn these figures are often unadjusted for age/sex or rely on flawed denominators (Wikipedia summarising press/think‑tank claims; The Guardian; Migration Observatory) [10] [2] [1]. Given these competing interpretations and the acknowledged data quality problems, the most defensible conclusion is cautious: no clear, consistently higher overall crime rate for migrants as a whole emerges once age and sex are accounted for, though specific nationalities and offence categories may show elevated representation in some datasets — a pattern that requires better linked data and transparent denominators to interpret [1] [3] [5].