What is the current Muslim population of Dearborn, Michigan, and how is it estimated?
Executive summary
Available reporting gives no single authoritative census count for Dearborn’s Muslim population; recent local estimates put it as a large share of the city (one estimate: ~54% of ~90,000 → ~48,600) while academic commentary notes Dearborn is home to one of the nation’s largest Muslim communities but is just about 1% of Michigan’s population [1] [2]. Sources differ in methodology and precision, and no official federal dataset directly reports religion by city in the materials provided [1] [2].
1. Dearborn’s Muslim community: big in reputation, mixed in numbers
Multiple sources describe Dearborn as having one of the largest Muslim populations in the United States and a prominent Arab-American presence; that reputation underpins many secondary estimates [2] [1]. The Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University explicitly notes Dearborn “has one [of] the largest Muslim populations in the nation” while putting the city in context of the state’s population [2]. An online demographics article gives a numeric estimate—about 54% of 90,000 residents, or roughly 48,600 Muslims—but that appears to be a modeled or secondary estimate rather than an official census count [1].
2. How the available numeric estimate is derived
The 48,600 figure cited by the demographics site is a straightforward calculation: an assumed total city population near 90,000 multiplied by an estimated Muslim share of 54%, yielding roughly 48,600 people [1]. That method relies on two key assumptions (total population and percent Muslim) that the site does not tie to a single primary source in the excerpts provided; therefore it represents an inferential estimate rather than an official tabulation [1].
3. Why precise counts are hard to produce
Federal censuses and many official demographic surveys do not record religion at the city level, so researchers often combine proxies—country/region of origin, ancestry, language, mosque membership, school enrollment, or sample surveys—to estimate Muslim populations. The sources here reflect that reality: the MSU commentary points to Dearborn’s prominence when Michiganders overestimate minority population sizes, underscoring how visible communities shape perceptions even if exact numbers are unclear [2]. The demographics article does not show a primary-source religious survey tied to the 54% figure [1].
4. Alternative viewpoints and limitations in the reporting
The MSU Institute frames Dearborn’s role mainly as a contextual explanation for public misperception—saying Dearborn “has one [of] the largest Muslim populations in the nation” while noting Michigan residents still misjudge statewide shares—without offering a numeric city total [2]. By contrast, the Ova demographics write-up supplies a precise-sounding number [3] [4] but offers no methodological citation in the excerpt, creating tension between a labeled estimate and academic caution about asserting exact religious counts [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention original survey instruments, mosque registries, or censusreligion data to validate the 54% estimate [1] [2].
5. Practical takeaways for readers and researchers
If you need a defensible numeric estimate for reporting or policy, note that secondary sources place Dearborn’s Muslim population as a very large share of the city—one published estimate is about 54% (~48,600 people) —but that figure should be labeled as an estimate derived from demographic assumptions rather than an official count [1]. For more authoritative precision, seek primary-data projects: local mosque membership statistics, city-level surveys that ask religion, or academic studies that document methodology; these are not provided in the current materials (not found in current reporting).
6. What this means politically and socially
The combination of a highly visible Arab and Muslim presence in Dearborn and the absence of a single, authoritative city-level religious count has political and perceptual consequences: MSU researchers use Dearborn’s visibility to explain why Michiganders often overestimate Muslim shares statewide, demonstrating how prominence shapes public beliefs even when exact numbers are uncertain [2]. The demographics site’s sizable estimate [1] helps explain why many outlets and commentators refer to Dearborn as a national Muslim population hub, but it should be reported with the caveat that it is an estimate based on assumed percentages rather than an official religious census [1] [2].
If you want, I can attempt to locate additional primary-source estimates (e.g., local surveys, mosque counts, or academic studies) beyond the sources you provided to refine or corroborate the numeric figures.