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What percentage of Dearborn Michigan residents are Muslim as of 2020 or 2021?
Executive summary
Official sources do not report religious affiliation for Dearborn, Michigan, so there is no definitive government percentage for Muslim residents in 2020 or 2021. Multiple secondary estimates converge on a rough range of about 40–50%, grounded largely in the 2020 Census ancestry figures (not religion) that show Dearborn’s large Middle Eastern/North African population and corroborating media and community estimates [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims said — and why they matter
The materials under review advance two linked claims: first, that Dearborn has one of the largest concentrations of Arab Americans and Muslim residents in the United States; second, that the Muslim share of the city’s population in 2020–2021 can be approximated as around 40–50%. These claims rest on demographic signals rather than direct religious enumeration. The 2020 Census and mainstream demographic databases record ancestry and place of origin (for example, a 54.5% MENA/Arab ancestry figure is repeatedly cited) but do not collect religion; therefore the Muslim estimates derive from correlating ancestry with likely religious affiliation and from local reporting and community surveys [3] [1] [2].
2. Why no definitive official percentage exists
The U.S. Census Bureau’s standard datasets and QuickFacts for Dearborn do not include religious affiliation; religion is not part of the decennial census or most federal population counts. Sources in the record explicitly note that Census QuickFacts and Data USA lack religion figures, and academic or polling efforts that estimate religion (for instance, PRRI’s work) report at county or national levels rather than city-level Muslim percentages for Dearborn. This absence of direct measurement forces reliance on proxy indicators—ancestry, language, immigration history—and on scholarly or journalistic estimates rather than an authoritative city-level religious statistic [4] [5] [2].
3. How analysts derive the commonly cited 40–50% range
The commonly cited 40–50% Muslim-share estimate flows from two converging inputs: the 2020 Census ancestry results showing a majority Middle Eastern/North African (MENA) identification near 54.5% in Dearborn, and consistent local reporting that a significant portion of that MENA-identifying population is Muslim. Media and demographic summaries translate MENA/Arab ancestry into probable religious affiliation based on historical community composition, mosque counts, and local civic life. Multiple analyses in the record explicitly present this 40–50% estimate as the best available approximation while acknowledging it is an estimate derived from ancestry proxies rather than direct religious self-identification [3] [1] [2].
4. Divergent sources, dates, and what each actually says
The dataset contains recent and older items that emphasize different points: Data USA and BestPlaces entries note demographic and ethnic composition without religion (2020 and earlier references) while follow-up media pieces and community reporting (2023–2024 items) repeat the 40–50% figure as an estimate grounded in the 2020 Census ancestry snapshot. PRRI’s 2020 religious census provides county-level context but not a Dearborn city religious breakdown. The pattern is consistent across entries: official statistics report ancestry, not religion, and secondary sources published after the 2020 Census interpret ancestry to estimate Muslim share [4] [3] [5] [1] [2] [6].
5. Potential biases and agendas behind different presentations
Community organizations, local media, and national commentators each have incentives that shape how they present Dearborn’s Muslim population. Local advocates and community outlets highlight high Muslim concentration to assert political and civic representation; national outlets sometimes use Dearborn as a shorthand for American Muslim visibility. Demographers and data services emphasize methodological limits and avoid definitive religious counts. Readers should note that estimates premised on ancestry may overstate or understate actual religious adherence because MENA identity includes Christians, secular individuals, and non-Muslims; conversely, converts and non‑MENA Muslims may be undercounted [3] [6] [2].
6. Bottom line and how to cite this responsibly
There is no official, census-backed percentage of Muslims in Dearborn for 2020 or 2021. The best-supported, multiple-source estimate—based on the 2020 Census ancestry data and subsequent reporting—is that roughly 40–50% of Dearborn residents were likely Muslim in that period, but this remains an informed approximation rather than a measured statistic. When citing this figure, state the basis: it is an estimate derived from 2020 ancestry data and community reporting, not from direct religious enumeration [1] [2] [3].