Fact check: What is the total population of Dearborn, Michigan as of 2025?

1. Conflicting headline numbers that demand explanation

Three distinct headline estimates appear in the supplied analyses: 110,691, 106,453, and 106,509. The 110,691 figure is presented as a 2025 estimate with a minimal growth rate from 2024 and appears in at least two summaries asserting steady increase since 2019 ^[2]. The 106,453 value is the Aterio forecast for 2025 cited twice and labeled a modeled projection spanning 2025–2035, showing a smaller base than the higher estimate ^[1]. The 106,509 projection appears in a Michigan census data synopsis that explicitly states it was derived from a 0.1% annual change assumption from 2023–2024 ^[3]. These are mutually inconsistent point estimates, not complementary subpopulations, so the discrepancy must be reconciled by examining methods and baselines.

2. Why the methods produce different totals—short-term survey vs. model forecasts

Sources that lean on the American Community Survey (ACS) frame or local planning notes tend to produce lower five-figure counts near 106,400–106,500, reflecting ACS 2023 baselines and conservative short-term growth adjustments; one ACS-derived profile reported 105,818 for 2023 and is consistent with modest upward revisions into 2025 ^{[4] [3]}. By contrast, higher totals like 110,691 are associated with datasets that either update population estimates with alternate administrative records or apply upward adjustments for known local growth and demographic composition, including immigrant communities cited as large groups from Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and Syria ^[2]. The divergence is therefore methodological—sampling and estimation choices, vintage of baseline data, and proprietary forecasting adjustments.

3. Which estimate is most defensible given the evidence provided

If one privileges official survey-based baselines and transparent short-term adjustments, the ~106,450–106,509 band is most defensible because it ties directly to ACS-derived counts and a clear stated annual change assumption ^{[3] [1]}. If one accepts administrative or alternative estimation techniques that adjust for undercounts or rapid local demographic shifts, the 110,691 figure may be justified, but it lacks an explicit methodological note in these excerpts, making it harder to independently validate ^[2]. Thus, for reproducibility and traceability, the lower band tied to ACS and Aterio forecasting is preferable for conservative reporting ^{[1] [4]}.

4. Implications of choosing one estimate over another for policy and planning

Using 110,691 versus ~106,450 changes resource-planning margins by roughly 3.8%–4.2%, which matters for municipal budgeting, public health capacity, and school enrollment projections; small percentage differences can alter funding formulas, staffing plans, and infrastructure prioritization. Documents that reference Dearborn as “approximately 110,000” likely incorporate local administrative updates and community health planning context, which may better reflect on-the-ground service demand in 2025, but could overstate or double-count populations if not reconciled with census baselines ^{[5] [2]}. Transparent use of a chosen estimate and documenting assumptions is therefore critical when these numbers drive policy.

5. Bottom line and recommended framing for reporting or decision-making

Reporters or planners should present a range—specifying that credible estimates place Dearborn’s 2025 population between about 106,400 and 110,700—and cite the underlying sources and methods when possible ^{[1] [3] [2]}. If one must pick a single figure for conservative budgeting or comparative analysis, select the ACS-linked forecast near 106,453–106,509 for reproducibility; if the goal is to capture local service demand that may outstrip survey baselines, note the higher 110,691 administrative-style estimate but disclose its less transparent provenance ^{[1] [2]}. Always flag methodological differences and date stamps when communicating the final number.