Fact check: What percentage of Dearborn's population identifies as Muslim in the 2025 census?

Executive Summary — Direct answer up front: The available materials in your packet do not contain an official, verifiable percentage from a 2025 U.S. Census count showing how many Dearborn residents identify as Muslim. The sources include varying claims and local estimates — ranging from about 30% (older estimate) to 54–55% (recent local claims) — but the dataset provided does not supply a confirmed 2025 census figure and notes that standard Census products do not directly report religion ^{[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]}.

1. Why there is no single “2025 census Muslim percentage” to quote loudly

The material you provided highlights a structural reason for the absence of a single authoritative percentage: the U.S. Census Bureau’s core decennial census and most of its standard profiles do not ask a question about religious affiliation, so there is no direct Census tabulation of “Muslim” by city in the conventional datasets. The packet includes a press kit and ACS background that explain the American Community Survey as the primary ongoing demographic tool for detailed local estimates, but even ACS profiles for Dearborn do not routinely publish religion percentages in the same way they publish age, race, income, or housing data ^{[1] [6] [7]}. That means any 2025 “Muslim percentage” claim must be traced to other local surveys, estimations, or media reporting rather than a direct census field.

2. Recent claims and local narratives — competing estimates emerge

Several pieces in your set present competing, recent-sounding claims about Dearborn’s Muslim population. One 2025 commentary asserts Dearborn is “America’s first majority-Arab, majority-Muslim city,” placing the Arab/Muslim share at roughly 55% ^[2]. Another assertion specifically states 54% Muslim for Dearborn but is flagged in the packet as a less credible or potentially biased source ^[3]. These high-end figures align with the strong local narrative that Dearborn has one of the nation’s densest Arab-American and Muslim communities, yet the packet does not provide underlying survey methodology, sample size, or date to validate those specific percentages.

3. Older estimates and academic snapshots present lower figures

By contrast, the packet contains older estimates that put the Muslim-affiliated share substantially lower: a 2017-cited figure of about 29.85% identifying with Islam in Dearborn appears in one source ^[4]. This older figure demonstrates how estimates can vary by method and time: decennial censuses, academic studies, local mosque membership rolls, and media tallies each produce different denominators and definitions (e.g., self-identification vs. ancestry vs. religious attendance). The presence of a roughly 30% older estimate alongside mid-50% recent claims underscores that methodology and date materially change reported percentages.

4. Broader state-level context and why that matters

Statewide Muslim population counts in the packet offer context but not city-level confirmation. One source provides a 2025 statewide Muslim population for Michigan of 241,828, and notes Michigan includes Dearborn as a center of concentrated Arab-American and Muslim population ^[5]. Another item asserts Dearborn has the “highest-percentage Muslim population” among U.S. cities without giving a numeric census figure ^[8]. State totals and city reputations help explain why local claims of majority-Muslim status circulate, but they do not substitute for a documented 2025 city-level percentage derived from a transparent sampling instrument or official census item.

5. How to treat the conflicting numbers and what’s missing to resolve them

Given the packet’s content, the responsible conclusion is that no definitive 2025 census percentage for Dearborn’s Muslim-identifying population is available in these sources. The plausible range in your documents spans roughly 30% to 55%, depending on the cited piece and its vintage ^{[4] [2] [3]}. Resolving this gap requires one of three things: an explicitly documented local survey with methodology and date that asks about religion; a reputable academic or polling study reporting city-level religion figures; or a non-census administrative tally that transparently defines its denominator. Absent those, claims in the packet should be treated as estimates or assertions, not as a confirmed 2025 census statistic ^{[1] [6]}.

6. Final takeaway and recommended next step for verification

Your packet provides useful leads and conflicting numbers, but the only rigorous next step to settle the question is to seek a documented source that directly measures religion at city level with transparent methodology. That means looking for a 2024–2025 local survey or academic study that explicitly asked residents about religion and published sample details, or a municipal data release that cites methodology. Until such a source is provided, the most accurate statement based on the supplied material is that a single authoritative 2025 census percentage is not present in the packet; published claims range from about 30% to about 55% depending on source and date ^{[4] [2] [3] [5] [1]}.