How has the Muslim population share in Dearborn changed since the 2000 and 2010 U.S. censuses?
Executive summary
Estimates and reporting indicate Dearborn’s Muslim (and broader Middle Eastern/North African — MENA) community grew from roughly 29–30% Arab in 2000 to a substantially larger share by 2020, with local reporting saying the city’s Arab population “spiked 12% from 2010 to 2020” and advocates arguing the 2020 count better captured MENA residents [1]. Precise Muslim-share figures are uncertain because the U.S. Census does not ask religion; reporting instead infers Muslim presence from Arab ancestry, MENA classification, mosque size and local demographics [1] [2].
1. Census categories and the measurement problem
The U.S. Census historically did not record religion, and until 2020 did not offer a distinct “Middle Eastern or North African” (MENA) ancestry category; this complicates measuring Muslims directly via decennial counts. Reporting on Dearborn therefore relies on ancestry (Arab/MENA) and community markers — for example, the Islamic Center of America and local language use — rather than a direct religion question [1] [2].
2. What the 2000 and 2010 census-era data show
Contemporary accounts say Dearborn was about 30% Arab in 2000 and that in the 2000 census 29,181 people of Arab ancestry were recorded in the city [3] [2]. The 2010 census recorded 41.7% of residents reporting Arab ancestry within the White race category, and the city population then was 98,153 [3]. Those figures refer to ancestry, not religion, though local histories note that “new waves of immigration came from the Middle East … mostly Muslims” [3].
3. Changes 2010 → 2020 and recent reporting
Local reporting based on the newer 2020 data and the first use of a MENA category says Dearborn’s Arab share increased — News analysis found Dearborn’s Arab population “spiked 12% from 2010 to 2020,” and advocates say the 2020 count captured more Middle Eastern residents thanks to the MENA option [1]. That reporting also frames the possibility that Dearborn may now be a Muslim-majority city, but explicitly notes the percentage is unclear because religion is not asked on the census [1].
4. Inferring Muslim share: evidence and limits
Journalists and scholars commonly infer Muslim prevalence in Dearborn from the large Arab-American population, high mosque capacity (the Islamic Center of America is the nation’s largest) and local community practices; Michigan public radio describes the Dearborn community as “overwhelmingly Muslim, and majority Shiite” [2] [4]. However, these are inferences: the census ancestry counts do not equate to religion, and the MENA category includes diverse groups (Iranians, Israelis, Assyrians, Kurds, Chaldeans) who are not uniformly Muslim [1].
5. Conflicting numbers and unreliable web estimates
Several online pages present precise Muslim percentages (for example, claims of 46% or a 54% Muslim share) or a “29% growth between 2000 and 2010” in the Muslim population, but those sources are not authoritative census reporting and appear inconsistent with mainstream local coverage and the underlying measurement constraints [5] [6]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, census-based Muslim percentage for Dearborn in 2000 or 2010; such precise religious tallies are not in the decennial census records [1] [2].
6. What can be stated with confidence
The solid, cited facts are: in 2000 Dearborn recorded roughly 29,181 people of Arab ancestry (about 29–30% by reporting) and in 2010 the city had 98,153 people with 41.7% reporting Arab ancestry in that census presentation [3] [2]; the 2020 census introduced a MENA category and local reporting says the Arab/MENA share and counts rose, with a reported 12% spike from 2010 to 2020 [1]. Any claim about how the Muslim-share specifically changed must be treated as an inference, not a direct census-derived fact [1].
7. Competing viewpoints and implicit agendas
Advocates and community leaders argue past censuses undercounted Arab/MENA residents and that 2020 better reflects community size; journalists relay that this inflates inferred Muslim shares. Some web sources present precise Muslim percentages without documenting methodology; those likely aim to highlight Dearborn’s Muslim prominence but do not substitute for census-based ancestry counts [1] [5]. Readers should weigh community advocacy for fuller counting against the technical limits of ancestry data as a proxy for religion.
8. Practical takeaway for your question
If you ask “How has the Muslim population share changed since 2000 and 2010?” the evidence shows the underlying Arab/MENA ancestry population grew between 2000 and 2020 (about 29–30% Arab in 2000; 41.7% Arab ancestry reported in 2010; a further reported increase into 2020) and local reporting infers an increased Muslim share as well — but a precise, census-certified Muslim-percentage change is not available because religion is not asked on the census [3] [1] [2].