What demographic factors (age, education, race) most strongly predict whether a marriage will end in divorce?

1. Age: marrying young remains the clearest single predictor

Decades of U.S. research show that the risk of divorce falls sharply with older age at first marriage—marriages begun in the late teens and early 20s carry substantially higher divorce risk than those begun later—making age at marriage one of the most robust individual-level predictors in the literature ^{[1] [2]}. National analyses and family profiles using ACS and cohort data document that the highest first-divorce rates cluster among those marrying youngest, even as broader cohort trends shift the timing of marriage upward ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Education: a dividing line in marital stability

Educational attainment is repeatedly identified as a powerful predictor: people with a college degree—especially those with advanced degrees—have substantially lower lifetime divorce rates than those with high school or less, and the post-1970s marriage decline has been concentrated among the less-educated ^{[4] [5] [6]}. Researchers and policy analysts link this to economic stability and assortative mating—higher education usually correlates with higher earnings and more stable employment, factors that reduce economic stressors linked to dissolution ^{[4] [5]}.

3. Race and ethnicity: consistent differences that reflect broader structural forces

Race and ethnicity show persistent differences in divorce patterns: studies and government analyses report higher divorce incidence for Black Americans and lower rates for Asian Americans, with multiracial groups often showing elevated rates relative to single-race groups ^{[2] [7] [8]}. These differences are not purely cultural: demographers emphasize that variation reflects distinct age-at-marriage patterns, educational gaps, labor-market conditions, and historical inequalities that shape family stability, meaning race often proxies for socioeconomic and structural exposures ^{[3] [4]}.

4. How these predictors interact: not independent risk factors

Age, education, and race are entangled: later marriage and higher education are more common among some racial groups and geographic regions, concentrating lower divorce risk in certain subpopulations; conversely, economic instability, lower education, and earlier marriage cluster in other groups, amplifying dissolution risk ^{[4] [2]}. Cohort studies note that lifecycle patterns of marriage and divorce vary by race and education and that simple bivariate comparisons can mislead unless analysts account for these intersections and for changing marriage rates over time ^{[2] [3]}.

5. Mechanisms and alternative interpretations

Researchers advance multiple mechanisms—economic security, selection (who chooses to marry), cultural norms, and policy or legal differences—that can explain why education and age predict divorce; some commentators stress choice and behavioral factors, while others highlight systemic forces like labor-market inequality and discrimination that undercut family stability for particular groups ^{[4] [9]}. Sources vary in emphasis: policy briefs stress economic causation ^[4], while popular summaries sometimes reduce patterns to individual choices without fully accounting for structural drivers ^{[9] [5]}.

6. Caveats, data limits, and what the evidence does not prove

While multiple national datasets and cohort studies converge on age, education, and race as strong predictors, the reporting shows limits: sample sizes constrain intersectional analysis for some race–education–sex combinations, and many summaries do not fully isolate causal pathways—so the evidence supports strong associations but is less definitive about exact causal mechanisms ^{[2] [3]}. Public-facing articles and legal blogs occasionally overstate precise percentages or imply universality; the best demographic work warns that context, policy, and cohort change matter ^{[4] [10]}.