How do DHS and Census Bureau counts differ for Somali immigrants and refugees?
Executive summary
DHS enforcement data and Census Bureau population estimates tell different stories about Somali immigrants: Census-derived American Community Survey (ACS) figures put the U.S. Somali-descended population at roughly 260,000 in 2024 and show high naturalization and U.S.-born shares (about 58% U.S.-born in Minnesota; 87% of foreign‑born Somalis in Minnesota naturalized) [1] [2]. DHS reporting and enforcement actions focus narrowly on noncitizens arrested or targeted in operations — a small subset of the population the Census counts — and DHS’s annual flow/refugee reports track admissions and enforcement outcomes rather than community size [3] [4].
1. Different missions, different numbers
The Census Bureau (via the ACS and decennial counts) estimates population size, nativity and citizenship status; its 2024/2025 reporting places about 260,000 people of Somali descent in the U.S. and shows large Minnesota concentrations — roughly 84,000 in the Twin Cities area — plus high naturalization rates among foreign‑born Somalis (national and Minnesota figures cited by multiple outlets) [1] [2] [5]. DHS data and reports (including OHSS annual flow/refugee reports and enforcement tallies) do not aim to count all people of Somali ancestry; they record admissions (refugee arrivals), enforcement arrests and removals — a different slice of the population entirely [3] [4].
2. Who appears in DHS numbers — and who doesn’t
DHS enforcement counts emphasize noncitizens who come into contact with immigration authorities — arrests, removals, and recent refugee admissions — and therefore mostly reflect people without U.S. citizenship or with pending immigration cases [4] [3]. By contrast, Census measures include U.S.-born people of Somali descent and naturalized citizens; Minnesota reporting shows almost 58% of Somalis in Minnesota were born in the U.S. and that 87% of foreign-born Somalis in Minnesota are naturalized citizens, groups unlikely to figure in DHS enforcement tallies except in edge cases [2] [5].
3. Scale matters: a small enforcement denominator vs. a larger population numerator
News coverage of targeted operations can conflate enforcement counts with community size. Reporting notes that only a minority of the Somali community would be subject to enforcement: local leaders estimated fewer than 1,000 undocumented Somalis in Minnesota, while DHS arrest summaries and enforcement briefs focus on those arrested for criminal convictions or immigration violations — not the 260,000 figure the Census provides [6] [1]. That difference explains why political rhetoric that cites DHS actions can appear to contradict Census-derived demographic data.
4. Timing and definitions drive gaps between datasets
Census ACS is an annual household survey and yields population estimates and citizenship rates; DHS refugee and enforcement reports are administrative flows tied to fiscal years and operational windows. Refugee arrival counts and DHS enforcement snapshots are point-in-time flows (FY admissions or specific operations), while Census figures are stock estimates of residents; the two are not directly comparable without careful conversion and clarification [3] [1].
5. How media and officials use the two sources — competing narratives
Some officials and outlets invoke DHS operations to argue there is a law‑enforcement problem in Somali communities; others point to Census/ACS data to highlight that the overwhelming majority are U.S. citizens or U.S.-born and to argue enforcement targets a small minority or risks racial profiling [4] [5]. Both uses are factual within their frames: DHS can lawfully describe arrests and removals; Census data factually show population size and citizenship composition [4] [2].
6. What the available sources don’t say — and what that implies
Available sources do not provide a single reconciled table matching DHS enforcement counts to the Census population categories for Somalis [3] [2]. They also do not quantify precisely how many Somali‑descent people are noncitizens eligible for removal at the national level beyond estimates cited in reporting, leaving room for divergent interpretations about the scale of any “problem” [1] [6].
7. Bottom line for readers
Use the Census/ACS when you need community size, citizenship or nativity context; use DHS reports when you need figures on admissions, arrests, or removals. The apparent contradiction — big Census numbers versus smaller DHS enforcement counts — disappears once you recognize they measure different things: a population stock versus enforcement/flow events [1] [3] [2].