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Do immigrants commit crimes at higher rates than native-born Americans 2023 studies?
Executive Summary
Multiple recent studies from 2024–2025 converge on a clear finding: immigrants, including undocumented immigrants in the United States, have lower incarceration and offending rates than native-born Americans across several measures and time frames. These conclusions are supported by analyses using different datasets — the American Community Survey, arrest records, the National Crime Victimization Survey, and longitudinal incarceration measures — reported by academic researchers, the Cato Institute, the Migration Policy Institute, the National Institute of Justice, and advocacy groups with results consistently showing immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated or arrested than U.S.-born persons [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9].
1. Why three different measures keep pointing the same way — incarceration, arrests, and victimization tell a consistent story
Studies using incarceration rates and lifetime incarceration calculations find immigrants less likely to be behind bars than native-born Americans. A 2025 analysis of American Community Survey data reported that native-born incarceration stood at 1,221 per 100,000 while illegal immigrants measured 613 and legal immigrants 319 per 100,000, framing immigrants as substantially less incarcerated [1]. Complementary work cited from 2024 and 2025 finds immigrants 60% less likely to be incarcerated and native-born Americans markedly more likely to be imprisoned by early adulthood; the Cato Institute’s 2025 work likewise reports lower lifetime incarceration for immigrants using ACS data spanning 2006–2023 [2] [3] [5]. The convergence across incarceration-focused studies strengthens the claim that immigrants are, on average, less represented in prison populations than U.S.-born residents [1] [2] [3] [5].
2. Arrest records and regional studies echo the national trend, with state-level nuance
Analyses of arrest records and county-level studies produce parallel results but reveal geographic variation. The National Institute of Justice’s September 2024 study of Texas arrest records from 2012–2018 found undocumented immigrants were arrested at less than half the rate of native-born citizens for violent and drug offenses and at about a quarter the rate for property crimes [7]. A mixed-methods NIJ report for Maricopa County highlights that immigration status correlates with differing levels of involvement in crime and gang affiliation, indicating local enforcement and social conditions matter even as the broader pattern favors lower offending among immigrants [9]. These regional analyses confirm the national pattern while underscoring that results can vary by jurisdiction and data source [7] [9].
3. Victimization and reporting studies add a human-centered angle and suggest selection effects
Victimization data from the National Crime Victimization Survey shows immigrants are 44% less likely to be victims of violent crime than U.S.-born Americans and are more likely to report violent victimization to police, a finding that complicates simple narratives about crime and community safety [8]. This evidence indicates immigrants are not only less represented among perpetrators but also experience lower rates of certain victimizations and engage with law enforcement at comparable or higher rates in reporting incidents. The co-occurrence of lower offender rates and lower victimization for immigrants in the NCVS dataset suggests population-level selection and social integration dynamics that go beyond arrest and incarceration tallies [8].
4. Institutional and ideological lenses: why think-tank and advocacy sources arrive at similar headlines but with different emphases
Multiple organizations with different reputations and missions report consistent headlines that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes, yet their emphases diverge. The American Immigration Council’s 2024 synthesis frames the trend as “debunking the myth” and links rising immigration shares to falling crime from 1980–2022, while the Migration Policy Institute’s 2024 report highlights similar declines and associations with homicide and property crime rates [4] [6]. The Cato Institute’s 2025 research emphasizes lifetime incarceration differences and age-specific comparative risks [5]. These organizations produce similar empirical conclusions but may pursue distinct policy narratives: advocacy groups stress myth-busting and integration benefits, while think tanks may foreground public-policy implications of lifetime incarceration differences [4] [5] [6].
5. What the evidence does and does not prove — consistent patterns, different lenses, and remaining questions
Across datasets and methodologies — ACS incarceration tallies, arrest records in Texas, NCVS victimization data, and long-run historical studies — the consistent, cross-validated finding is that immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated or arrested than native-born Americans [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]. Methodological differences matter: some studies measure incarceration prevalence, others arrest or conviction rates, some focus on undocumented populations in specific states, and some analyze victimization and reporting. These differences explain variation in magnitude but not direction. The accumulated evidence through 2025 supports the statement that immigrants do not commit crimes at higher rates than native-born Americans and, by multiple measures, commit crimes at lower rates [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9].