Fact check: What percentage of the English population identifies as Muslim in 2025?

1. Census baseline: a clear anchor but limited to 2021 — what the numbers actually show

The 2021 Census remains the strongest empirical anchor: England and Wales reported 6.5% identifying as Muslim, and several 2025 summaries continue to present that 2021 figure as the baseline for discussions of the Muslim share of the population. This 6.5% figure is explicit in the 2025 summary that cites 2021 results, giving a factual starting point for any 2025 statements about religious composition. The census coverage and methodology make it the most reliable single snapshot, but it is not a real-time measure of 2025 population composition without adjustments for demographic change. ^{[1] [4]}

2. 2025 reports reiterate the 6%–6.5% band but differ on interpretation

Several 2025 documents and reports reference the census baseline and report the Muslim share in the 6% range, sometimes rounded to 6% in broader-population summaries and media references. One March 2025 report specifically states Muslims form about 6% of the UK population (roughly 4 million people), and this has been used in public discussion as a 2025 figure, although it mirrors the 2021 census count rather than an independently measured 2025 census update. This creates consensus around the mid-single-digit range while leaving room for rounding differences. ^{[2] [1]}

3. Projections and commentary push the number higher — examine the evidence

A subset of analyses and commentaries within 2025 cite growth trends and projections suggesting the Muslim share could be notably higher in coming years, with some texts mentioning projections up to about 8% in forward-looking scenarios. These projections draw on demographic trends such as fertility differentials, migration, and age structure, but they are projections, not measured 2025 counts, and several reports explicitly note that the 2021 census remains the last comprehensive enumeration, so higher percentages are contingent on assumptions and not established counts. ^[3]

4. Sources that do not contribute directly — what’s missing from some 2025 material

Multiple 2025 publications examined contain useful context but do not report a direct 2025 percentage for Muslims in England, including health and survey reports and certain academic pages. These documents are informative on broader social and demographic trends but do not provide a numeric point estimate for 2025, highlighting a gap between thematic reporting and precise demographic accounting. The absence of a new national census between 2021 and 2025 means many 2025 claims rest on projections or repeated citation of the 2021 figure. ^{[5] [6] [7]}

5. Reconciling UK vs England figures — careful with geographic scope

Some sources present a UK-wide percentage (e.g., 6% of the UK population) while others present England and Wales combined. Users asking specifically about England should note that the most precise publicly cited figure from the 2021 census was reported for England and Wales combined at 6.5%, and media or analytical simplifications occasionally present 6% for the whole UK. Distinguishing England-only from England & Wales or UK-wide counts matters because small differences in denominators change the reported percentages and how they are interpreted. ^{[1] [2]}

6. Multiple viewpoints and potential agendas — why numbers are debated

Commentators projecting more rapid growth of the Muslim population sometimes frame those figures as a prompt for policy or cultural debate, while others emphasize that the census baseline tempers alarmist interpretations. The difference between measured census counts and model-based projections creates space for political framing: proponents of urgency cite upward trajectories, while defenders of the status quo point to the stable mid-single-digit census figure. Readers should recognize that both empirical counts and projections are being used selectively in public discourse. ^{[3] [1]}

7. Bottom line for a 2025 answer — what a responsible statement looks like

A responsible 2025 statement is that around 6%–6.5% of the population identified as Muslim, based on the 2021 census as reiterated in 2025 summaries and reports; claims of substantially higher shares in 2025 rely on projections rather than new enumeration. For precision-minded usage, cite the 6.5% England & Wales 2021 census figure and note that 2025 estimates commonly round to 6% for UK-wide public summaries while forecasting scenarios put longer-term shares higher. ^{[1] [2] [3]}