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Fact check: Which European countries have the largest Muslim populations in 2025?
Executive Summary
The most recent tabulations in the provided materials place Russia, France and Germany at the top of European countries by absolute Muslim population in 2025, with Russia estimated at about 16 million, France ~6.7 million, and Germany ~5.5 million. These 2025 estimates derive from aggregated reporting and modelling; significant methodological differences and definitional choices — whether Russia is counted entirely as European, how religion is measured, and which migration/fertility assumptions are used — produce variation across datasets and make precise country ranks sensitive to those choices [1] [2].
1. Why the headline ranking names Russia, France and Germany — and why that can be misleading
The headline claim that Russia leads Europe with ~16 million Muslims comes from a 2025-ranked list that treats Russia as a European country for purposes of continental totals and absolute counts [1]. That framing inflates Europe’s Muslim totals compared with lists that restrict “Europe” to the European Union or to territory west of the Urals. France and Germany appear next because they combine sizeable immigrant-descended communities with higher birth rates among some Muslim populations and long-established domestic Muslim minorities; those features drive absolute numbers rather than shares of national populations. Analysts caution that different definitions of “Europe,” various estimation methods, and reliance on dated baseline surveys (for example, Statista’s 2016 snapshots) yield divergent rankings and margins of error [2] [3].
2. How time horizons and migration scenarios change the picture dramatically
Projections and policy discussions routinely show large divergence across scenarios depending on future migration flows and fertility differentials. Pew-style scenario frameworks identify outcomes ranging from modest increases in Muslim shares under zero-migration conditions to substantially larger shares under continued high migration; those scenarios map onto very different country rankings by 2050 even if 2025 point estimates appear settled [4]. Academic modelling that uses demographic techniques finds long-term possibilities — in some scenarios — of Muslim majorities in a set of European countries many decades from now, but these are highly contingent on migration, assimilation, and fertility convergence, underscoring that short-term 2025 rankings should not be read as deterministic forecasts for mid-century demographic balances [5].
3. Data sources differ: surveys, censuses, and modelling yield different country counts
The 2025 top-10 list cited in the materials relies on aggregated estimates and contemporary reporting while other sources rely on older census-based snapshots. For example, Statista’s 2016 estimates place France as the largest Muslim population in Europe at about 5.7 million but reflect older baselines and differing coverage [2] [3]. National censuses, when they ask about religion, vary in frequency and methodology; France, notably, does not collect religion in its census and must rely on surveys and modelled estimates. Therefore apparent changes between 2016 and 2025 can reflect improved modelling, new migration data, or different inclusion rules rather than pure demographic growth [2].
4. Country-level nuance: absolute numbers versus shares and regional concentration
Absolute population counts tell one story; percentage shares and regional concentration tell another. Countries with high absolute numbers — Germany, France, and the UK — are large overall, so their Muslim communities are large in absolute terms but modest as national shares. Smaller countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina or Albania appear high on per-capita or share-based lists because Muslims constitute majorities or large shares there; the 2025 top-10 list includes Bosnia (~1.59 million) and Albania (~1.26 million) reflecting that dynamic [1]. Policy implications differ whether one focuses on absolute numbers, political representation, social services, or integration challenges, so readers should distinguish between raw counts and relative prevalence within national populations [1].
5. What to watch next — uncertainty, politics, and the need for transparent methods
The contemporary sources emphasize that future rankings depend heavily on migration trends, fertility patterns, and methodological transparency. Public debate often conflates estimates with certainties; the materials warn that projections to 2050 can vary widely across “zero migration” and “high migration” scenarios and that some academic models produce long-term outcomes that are sensitive to small parameter changes [4] [5]. For reliable comparisons, analysts should demand clear documentation of how “Muslim” is operationalized, whether countries are counted as European by territory or political grouping, and what baseline years underpin estimates. Until datasets converge on standardized methods, the cautious conclusion is that Russia, France and Germany are the largest by absolute Muslim population in 2025 under common continental definitions, but rankings shift under alternative definitions and assumptions [1] [4].